DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, August 23. The reduction of the refinancing rate by the National Bank of Tajikistan could lead to an increase in inflation, an economist from the EDB (Eurasian Development Bank), Konstantin Fedorov, said, Trend reports.
According to him, getting inflation back to the desired levels doesn't require lowering the refinancing rate. In fact, cutting the rate might make inflation go higher, possibly crossing the target range for the first half of 2024.
He noted that a significant slowdown in inflation was registered in Tajikistan's economy in 2022–2023.
"From 2019 through 2021, the growth of consumer prices in the country exceeded the National Bank's target range. In the second half of 2022, inflation began to return to target due to the implementation of a consistent monetary policy and the easing of external price pressures. By mid-2023, price growth had dropped to 2.4 percent year-on-year, significantly below the targeted level," Fedorov said.
He emphasized that the current inflation below the National Bank's targets is primarily a result of the influence of non-monetary factors.
In Tajikistan, inflation stood at 2.3 percent year-on-year at the end of July 2023, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than in June and May.