Tehran, Iran, Oct. 11
By Mehdi Sepahvand – Trend:
If the United States walks out of the Iranian nuclear agreement, aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), any future sanctions would highly probably be targeted at Iran’s energy sector, an expert says.
“One of the most notable restrictions that is likely to follow would be placed on Iran’s oil and petrochemicals export, which constitutes a large section of Iran’s revenues and foreign exchange reserves,” Nasrollah Barzani, a capital market expert, told Trend Oct. 11.
Later this week, President Trump will announce his administration’s position on the Iran nuclear deal, and the expectation is that he’ll decertify the deal.
The JCPOA was agreed upon by Iran on one side and the group 5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on the other as a move to end dispute over Iran’s nuclear program and lift economic sanctions on Tehran.
During his speech at the UN General Assembly on Sept. 19, the US president described the JCPOA as “the worst and most one-sided transaction Washington has ever entered into,” a characterization he often used during his presidential campaign. Decertifying the deal will open the way for Congress to possibly authorize more restrictive measures against Iran.
“Over the past years, the most influential factor on Iran’s economy has been its political relations with other countries,” Barzani said, noting that the JCPOA was a start to growing ties between Tehran and the world.
“The JCPOA put Iran’s economy on the path to rehabilitation. The deal was expected to provide grounds for financing, connection to the global banking system, and luring foreign investment.”
However, the expert said, it has become an experience with Iran that sanctions will inevitably put the government in a tense position by restricting its sources of income.
“That would not only reduce government earnings, but make much harder the procurement of intermediate materials and parts, banking transactions with the international community, and funding projects.”
“This will sadly come as a hard blow to the economy and yet again postpone the economic rehabilitation of the country, because, although we do not have much economic ties with the US, the international companies and banks with which we do work are under the influence of US policies,” Barzani noted.