BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 10
By Elnur Baghishov - Trend
The coronavirus crisis will hit Iran's foreign trade hard, an official of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Ali Akbar Nikoo Eghbal told Trend.
According to Nikoo Eghbal, restrictions on exports across land borders, decreasing tourist arrivals, decreasing international oil prices and demand for oil, and declining Iranian exports, including trade with China, are among the negative consequences of the virus.
Nikoo Eghbal added that the Iranian economy has always suffered from a lack of fundamental balance in the development process.
The official said that the inflation rate has consistently been around 30 percent. In addition, persistent deficits in annual budgets have resulted in a negative balance of economic development over the past two years.
Nikoo Eghbal said that taking all this into account, the budget for the current year of Iran (starting from March 20, 2020) envisages economic growth of 0 percent without oil, and -7 percent when calculating oil.
The official added that on the other hand, the International Monetary Fund estimates that Iran's foreign trade will decrease by $16 billion in 2020 to about $70 billion.
"More importantly, the unemployment crisis could exacerbate the pension crisis in the relevant institutions," he said.
“The coronavirus will affect the activities of approximately 1 million small and large workshops and result in a reduction, restriction, or loss of activity of at least 4.8 million workers (approximately 20 percent of employees),” Ministry of Cooperatives, Labour, and Social Welfare of Iran said.
Nikoo Eghbal said that the Research Center of the Iranian Parliament think tank estimates that 2.5-6.5 million people will be unemployed as a result of the coronavirus crisis.
Iran's foreign trade turnover exceeded $85 billion in the last Iranian year (March 21, 2019 to March 20, 2020). About $41.3 billion of these funds falls on exports and $43.7 billion on imports.
Iran is one of the countries heavily affected by the rapidly-spreading coronavirus. According to recent reports from the Iranian officials, over 107,600 people have been infected 6,640 people have already died. Meanwhile, over 86,100 have reportedly recovered from the disease.
The country continues to apply strict measures to contain the further spread. Reportedly, the disease was brought to Iran by a businessman from Iran's Qom city, who went on a business trip to China, despite official warnings. The man died later from the disease.
The Islamic Republic only announced its first infections and deaths from the coronavirus on Feb. 19.