Analysis Materials 23 November 2005 12:05 (UTC +04:00)

Experts of the World Health (WHO) warns that the virus of bird’s flu can shortly start mutating and become a cause for global pandemic of fatal damage for flu affected people, while the number of victims can reach 150 million people. Pandemic of bird’s flu will cause tremendous human losses and perhaps, the world economic crisis. The new researches, published by big financial organizations, assert that the epidemic will yield devastating results in the South-East Asia.

As of last data, 39 cases of bird’s flue have been registered in laboratories in Thailand and Vietnam. 29 of them had fatal ends. As of recent conclusions by a group of scientists from England and the United States, a pandemic of a Spanish women who killed 20 million people throughout the world started as bird’s flu.

Economy and bird’s flu

The World Bank regards the bird’s flu as one of the essential threats to economy of the Asian-Pacific region. In accordance with the WB’s report, the bird’s flu can damage the tourist, transport and retail trade, and it is observed in several countries of the world. Thus, China barred import of poultry from 14 countries, whereas some regions complain of decrease in the level of tourism. Dag Chester, Australia’s representative at the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation organization, called on the countries to avoid the panic.

The United States, which announced on approval of over $7bn for the preparations for possible pandemic of bird’s flu, predicts the financial losses to comprise $170bn manats in connection with the expenses for medical services and fall in labor productivity.

Agriculture was the major victim of bird’s flu in Europe. The panic prevented the Europeans to purchase and eat chicken meat.

The pandemic of �bird’s flu’ can decrease world demand for oil by 7 million barrels a day, the American consultation company PIRA Energy Group forecasts. The experts analyzed that the �bird’s flu’ mutates the form of infecting others, while it can decrease the passenger transportation.

We hold on silence

Azerbaijan fears of pandemic of bird’s flu, while it is not expect to come to reality in Azerbaijan. According to estimation of Azerbaijani epidemiologists, virus mutant will not appear this year. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani specialists do not undertake to exclude the appearance of bird’s flu. The doubts by medical specialists are grounded with the fact Azerbaijan neighbors with Turkey, Iran and Russia, where the cases of bird’s flue were found. Therefore, the Azerbaijani government imposed a ban on chicken import from Iran early this October.

“Next monitoring of existence of the bird flu will be conducted in Azerbaijan from 9 November,” Elman Aslanov, the Director of the Veterinary Laboratory of the Agriculture Ministry, told Trend. The monitoring will be carried out with participation of specialists of veterinary service, the Ecology and Natural Recourses Ministry, the Health Ministry and the Azerbaijan Society of Hunters.

According to Emin Shahbazov, the head of the Veterinary Service under the Agriculture Ministry, it will come as 3rd monitoring held in the country. The monitoring conducted in Absheron, the national parks Shirvan, Aghgol, Gizilaghaj State Natural Reserve, the Caspian shore did not revealed any signs of the disease.

“The next monitoring will be conducted in these territories as well,” Shahbazov said.

Besides, the Ministry works on prevention of the bird flu, including, strengthening of control on borders, holding of meeting with owners of broiler enterprises twice a week.

According to him, it is prematurely to ascertain that the “bird’s flu” is spread on the area, as there are no results of analyses so far. If it is in Turkey, it may also reach the Caucasus. The rate of dissemination may be small, therefore the monitoring held by the Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources gave no results. The fact of duck’s mortality has not been confirmed by the NAR official bodies yet, however, the veterinary services took analyses”, he noted.

Earlier a plague of 200 ducks had been fixed in the territory of the Nakhchivan Autinomous (NAR). The Baku Represetation of the (NAR) rebuffed reports on the spread of the �bird’s flu’ in the area of the republic,“ head of the Representative Office, Rashad Gulamov said.

The fact was fixed, while the plague of birds in the area of 4-4.5km does not mean the existence of a virus of the disease.

“The analysis of the dead birds at the veterinary service of the NAR showed on absence of any manifestation of such disease,” the same source underlined.

Gulamov noted that or the time being there existed 2 versions, which could cause the plague of bird вЂ" food poisoning and infection diseases, while not necessarily the вЂ�bird’s flu’.

“The Ministry of Ecology, sanitary-quarantine inspection and veterinary services of the NAR permanently holds appropriate actions in case the disease evolves in this republic,” Gulamov underlined.

However, there is fall in purchase of chicken in Azerbaijan as the inquiry of shop assistants show.

How to get secured

To get secured against the infection, the specialists recommend preventive inculcations, to follow the elementary norms of hygiene. It is necessary to boil chicken no less than 10 minutes, as virus immediately dies in temperature of 100 degrees. Besides, the consumers are called on to avoid purchase of meat which did not undergo sanitary and veterinary control, as well as individual and private shopping centers.

The recommendations urge that it is possible to differ the infected meat for different signs. In particular, the infected meat is wet, while skin of the infected chicken is sticky and yellow-green colored. Infection with the bird’s flu is possible in case of use of raw meat and hitting of the damaged section of the skin with the blood of infected chicken. To avoid the infection, the Health Ministry requests the people to use resin gloves while cooking.