New proposals is part of "ping-pong" between Iran & West
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 5 / Trend , T.Konyayeva/
The new proposals, which Iran is going to submit to the G6 countries next week, is just a next pass in the made proposals, it will unlikely influence on the development of relations between Iran and the Western countries, believes Alex Vatanka, Senior Middle East Analyst of Jane's Information Group.
"This is a nuclear ping-pong between Iran and the West which is going on for years," IHS Jane's Senior Middle East Analyst told Trend by telephone. "We have many proposals, counter proposals, and refined proposals".
Iran will submit a new package of initiatives on its nuclear program next week and is ready to resume a dialogue with the leading world powers, Secretary of Supreme National Security Council of Iran (SNSC) Saeed Jalili, said on Sept. 1.
Issue can only be resolved if there is political trust or increased political trust between Iran and the West, Vatanka believes. But now the Iranians don't trust to the West states and their intentions, as well as the West continues not to trust Iran's long-term ambitions about its nuclear program.
According to the American analyst, one of the possible reasons of such new proposals is the Head of the IAEA, Dr. ElBaradei's leaving by the end of November, and appointment of the new IAEA's Director Mr. Amano who will be probably acting slightly different in terms of writing reports on Iran.
The latest IAEA report stated about the increased cooperation of Iran, as well as a slight slowing down of its nuclear activities. Previously, El-Baradei said that the nuclear threat from Iran is exaggerated. He opposed the tightening of sanctions against Iran, which is offered by a number of European countries.
But Vatanka believes, that Western powers would like to take this issue to the UN Security Council and deal with it at this level.
"That in itself is quite short-sighted because we are not going to face any new development from this process until Russia and China change their minds about the Iranian nuclear issue," the expert said.
He said Russia and China are not going to vote for severe sanctions against Iran at this stage. Only way they are going to do that is if IAEA sends much more explicit evidences in terms of its reports to the UN Security Council about the Iranian nuclear program's military aspects.
The U.S. and other Western countries accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons for military purposes under the guise of peaceful nuclear energy program. The UN Security Council adopted five resolutions, three of which are aimed at imposing sanctions on Iran, demanding from it to abandon uranium enrichment, and two resolutions containing warnings. Tehran denies the charges, saying its nuclear program is aimed solely at meeting the country's electricity needs.
By engaging in discussions, the Iranians are buying time, during which their nuclear development continues and increases, Professor of Anthropology at the McGill University, Philip Carl Salzman, believes.
He said official Tehran is hoping to put off any sanctions, by putting forward the new proposals.
"The Iranians have every intention of pursuing their nuclear armament goals, no matter what anyone says," Salzman wrote to Trend in an email. "Any discussions they have, any agreements they offer, or agreements they may make, are solely for the purpose of obfuscation and dissimulation."
In July, U.S. President Barack Obama called on Iran by September to respond to the offer of "six", stipulating refusal from further nuclear research in exchange for trade preferences. Several European countries, particularly France and Germany, have already said they will seek tougher sanctions if they do not get a concrete answer from Tehran by the deadline.
Another objective in discussions is to "change the subject" from Iran's crooked election, the brutal crushing of the opposition, torture, rape, and murder in Iranian prisons, their ongoing show trials, Salzman said.
Contrary to the Western experts' opinion, Iranian political scientists say Iran is ready to cooperate at the regional and international level.
In the new package of proposals, which is a continuation of the package presented last year, Iran is seeking to reduce the anxiety of the international community regarding Iran's nuclear program, as well as to create conditions for regional and international cooperation, said Hassan Lasjerdi, the Professor at the University of Tehran.
"Submitting the new proposals, Iran seeks to develop a long-term plan and the decision to negotiate with the West," Iranian Political Scientist, Director of Public Relations of the Mehr News Agency, told Trend by telephone. "Iran's new proposals aim to establish peace, progress and justice all over the world."
He believes the new proposals will clarify the view of official Tehran to the opposite side and could become the basis for long-term negotiations.
"Iran expects the Western countries will carefully consider the proposed package without mention of the Iranian nuclear program," said Lasjerdi.
On Sept. 3, the Iranian representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Ali Ashgar Soltaniyeh said, "it is wrong to suggest that the possible talks with the "six" will refer Iran's nuclear program" as "Iran's nuclear facilities can only be checked by the IAEA".
The only thing what may happen during the next three weeks is that Iran continues to look to the IAEA and works with them, Vatanka said. Nothing major is going to come up that can change the Iranian behavior.
"Iran trust that Russia and China are going to abstain at least from supporting Western designed hard sanctions against Iran," the American analyst said. "The United States and Western states can decide to toughen actions against Iran, they can try to change the mind of the Iranians and I actually believe that it is not going to change their mind about the nuclear program."
T.Jafarov contributed to this article.