Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.27
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
On the 4th of November when the oil sanctions are applied, Iran will be in a very difficult predicament as what to do with its oil industry and oil exports, Ariel Cohen, senior fellow Atlantic council, principal, International Market Analysis, told Trend.
"It will not receive funds in US dollars from oil sales and there will be the secondary sanctions against all companies and central banks from different countries that may try to bypass and circumvent the sanctions," he said.
Cohen noted that Iran will be facing a very difficult situation both externally, in terms of the ability to sell oil, but also internally as their income will be drying up, which may cause internal problems, social unrests, demonstrations and etc.
Therefore, the Iranian regime will have to make a strategic decision, whether to continue with its current policy in the Middle East, or change the policy and work with the international community and with the US and the Trump administration in terms of lifting the sanctions, he believes.
"I do not believe that this change will come soon. I do not believe that this regime is about to change its course and therefore the price that the Iranian people will pay is going to be very high, as was with the case of Iraq under Saddam Hossein during the sanctions," said Cohen.
Ariel Cohen said he thinks that there will be attempts to bypass the sanctions regime and sell oil either via Russia or via Turkey or even via some of the Gulf states such as Qatar.
But in the long term, very few companies and countries will be interested in risking the repercussions and getting under the US sanctions regime, he added.
Sanctions are due to be re-imposed on Iran's oil industry on November 4. The move comes after US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw his country from the 2015 nuclear deal in May.
The US has said that countries or companies that conduct transactions with Iran are liable to face secondary sanctions.
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