Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 1
By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:
Donald Trump pursues quite a new policy which can be described as the policy of unpredictability. It blows the mind of many politicians, analysts and intelligence agencies, who do not have time to adapt to it, and switch to the "new wave".
Even if verbally only, some things deliver great discomfort.
Trump's actions do not obey any laws; he constantly surprises his political competitors and makes them nervous, as they are often unable to predict the final result of his intentions.
For example, he said the US military would soon come out of Syria. At once a number of countries were getting tense and excited, and began to calculate possible further steps, both those of their own and others’.
The world media outlets were discussing consequences of that possible move, and the most emotional people praised or scolded him. For a while there was uncertainty and then Trump said: I was dissuaded [to keep US troops in Syria], but I still believe that the United States have nothing to do there.
No one was a hundred percent sure how the story would end while it was critically important and could dramatically affect the geopolitical situation in the region.
Another striking example is the story of North Korea's nuclear program. This has never happened under previous US administrations.
Looks like fuzzy logic: the new policy deflects from strict principles of classical (true or false) logic entering the shades of gray that significantly extends range of options in decision making.
Many people believe that the US President is an impulsive and eccentric leader, and his policies are the product of his own way of doing things.
This, of course, can be so, but...
In addition to the principle of separation of powers and the mechanism of checks and balances in the US system of government, there are also institutions that, say, strongly, and maybe decisively influence US policy. Among them are CIA, CFR, Wall Street, Pentagon and other powerful decision-making bodies (let alone those whom we have never seen or heard about publicly).
Another option may be that in the bowels of those Institutions the idea of a new strategy for the US and the World – the policy of unpredictability – has been set. As for Mr. Trump, he is a brilliant performer.
If anyone thinks that all this is the work of one person, they should be reminded of The Mayflower Compact of Pilgrim Fathers.
Now, in the President Trump’s first term, the new strategy is being tested. If Washington decides it works, then Trump is most likely to be elected for a second term.