Tehran has a decision to make, again

Tehran has a decision to make, again

Baku, Azerbaijan, November 3

By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:

Will the US be able to coerce Iran into changing its overall policy through sanctions, given its forty-year acquired immunity to them? Will the country and the ruling Iranian authority be able to withstand the new wave of pressure? These questions are of great concern to many.

On Nov.4, the US is going to impose sanctions on Iran’s oil, its gas industry and the banking sector.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has said Iranians may face more difficulties in the months ahead, and that the government will utilize its entire capabilities to alleviate the problems, world media outlets reported Wednesday referring to Iran’s state TV.

Limiting oil exports

Based on data from the International energy Agency (IEA) and other trustful sources, in September the volume of exports of Iranian oil and condensate ranged from 1.7 to 1.9 million b/d compared to a peak of 2.7 million b/d in June, CNBC wrote.

According to Reuters, citing data from Refinitiv Eikon, in the first week of October, deliveries from Iran decreased to 1.1 million b/d compared to the second and third quarter, when Iran on average shipped 2.5 million b/d.

China and India are the main buyers of Iran's oil.

The import of Iranian oil to China in September fell by 34 percent (year on year) to 2.13 million tons (or 518,3 thousand barrels per day) on the background of U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported referring to data from the General customs Bureau of the PRC.

Prior to that, the Wall Street Journal reported that China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) and China Petrochemical Corp. refused to import Iranian oil in November.

India is the second largest buyer of Iranian oil. In November New Delhi plans to obtain 300 thousand b/d, which is more than twice below the average level of purchases from April to August.

The US has agreed to withdraw India from oil sanctions against Iran, so that the country will be able to continue its imports of about 1.25 million tons of Iranian oil per month until March 2019. A statement on this can be made in the coming days, according to the Economic Times.

“India and the United States agreed in general on exemption from sanctions. India will reduce oil imports by a third, which alone is a big reduction,” the newspaper wrote.

European companies are likely to completely abandon the purchase of Iranian oil. According to sources of Reuters, Total, ENI, Saras, Repsol, Cepsa, and Hellenic Petroleum stopped buying Iranian oil.

Measures to secure survival

Iran is making efforts to put in practice fresh measures which will help it resist the US sanctions. Recent statements of the Iranian officials, their lately visits and practical actions give a common picture of developments in the eve of imposition of the next package of sanctions.

On Wednesday and Friday Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made one-day visits accordingly to Islamabad and Ankara to meet with top officials of the two countries. Though the official agenda suggested issues other than sanctions, it seems that Tehran wants to make certain that its surroundings are safe and ties between the neighboring states are kept intact in the run-up to the forthcoming US sanctions.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said during the trilateral meeting of Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan foreign ministers in Istanbul last week that the three countries have agreed to use local currencies in commercial transactions, Middle East Monitor reported on October 31.

Iran began selling crude oil to private companies for export on Sunday, part of a strategy to counter US sanctions which come into effect on Nov. 4 and aim to stop the country's key crude exports. Out of 1 million barrels offered on the energy bourse, 280,000 barrels were sold at $74.85 per barrel. The launch of oil bourse can somehow overcome the limitations, former Iranian MP Gholam Ali Meygoli-Nezhad told Trend.

Some Iranian officials including three newly appointed ministers have called for more freedom of exporters and support for the private sector. The new ministers promised to remove barriers from the country’s exports and production.

Iran has to use the bilateral monetary treaties as they can facilitate money transfers and exports for Iran, but infrastructure should be provided for implementation, Chairman of Investment and Capital Committee of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Abbas Argon told Trend.

“Any form of agreement which facilitates monetary transfers can reduce the impact of US sanctions. In this regard, we need to increase our engagement with other countries and expand trade relations,” said Argon.

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has approved 11 directives of the Supreme Economic Coordination Council`s 4th meeting for Forex market control, according to the Iran president's official website.

The directives say that all non-oil exporters are obliged to deliver their export currency to the NIMA System within a maximum of 3 months, or transfer the export earnings to the country by any other ways which are determined by CBI. Due to the special economic conditions of the country, failure to comply with this order is considered as currency smuggling.

Any natural or legal person is able to bring any amount of currency to the country in accordance with the regulations specified by Iran's Central Bank, and none of the security and customs authorities have the right to prevent it.

Buying and selling currency is permitted only in authorized banks and exchanges, trader offices in accordance with the regulations of Iran's Central Bank. The creation of a psychological fluctuation and inflammation is considered as a disruption of the economy and the authorities and the judicial authorities are authorized to deal with it legally.

In order to further increase trade turnover between Iran and Iraq, an Iranian products trade center will be set up in Sulaymaniyah city of Iraq, Deputy Governor of Iran’s East Azarbaijan province Ali Jahangiri said, according to IRNA.

Jahangiri said that the center will be set up by the private sector and will export Iranian products to Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah and other cities of Iraq and Syria.

A few days ago former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami warned that popular protests will erupt in the country if the regime makes the same mistakes.

“If the regime insists on its mistakes, criticism will turn into protests, and it is not clear what will happen to the country after that,” Khatami said on his Telegram account.

He stressed that the reformists’ demands are limited to reforms within the system and they don’t call for changing it. “If the public is convinced that the reformists can't do anything, the street will stand behind those who want to change the regime,” he said.

Iran’s oil export is gradually getting down, and with it, currency flow into the country is also shrinking. Tehran will have to decide whether to direct its diminishing financial resources for the development of its missile program and support its military in the region or for urgent implementation of socio-economic reforms and lifting social tension in the Iranian society.

There seems to be not enough money to do both. That’s probably what Mohammad Khatami meant.

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Uzbek and Kazakh companies launch joint venture for assembly of Chevrolet cars
Uzbek and Kazakh companies launch joint venture for assembly of Chevrolet cars
Uzbekneftegaz obtains industrial gas flow from South Kemachi field
Uzbekneftegaz obtains industrial gas flow from South Kemachi field
Uzbekistan shares domestic COVID-19 data for December 6
Uzbekistan shares domestic COVID-19 data for December 6
Loading Bars
Azerbaijan’s Baku Int’l Sea Trade Port expects increase in flow of goods
Georgia’s spice exports to Central Asia down
Kazakhstan sees multifold decrease in trade with South Korea
Eurostat discloses Azerbaijan’s petroleum exports to Italy
Bank of Georgia to begin offering preferential agro-credit
Georgia’s export of spices remains steady - Geostat
Azerbaijan’s oil exports to Romania for 10M2021revealed
Baku port reveals cargo shipment capability of Ro-Ro terminal
Azerbaijan shares forecast on total cargo shipment via Baku int'l trade port for 2021 (PHOTO)
Kazakh Ulba Metallurgical Plant opens tender for cargo transportation services
Azerbaijan may potentially develop transit communications with int’l transport corridors - Russian analyst
Iran continues work on Chabahar – Zahedan railway project
Eurostat reveals Spain’s petroleum oils import from Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan talks impact of border restrictions due to COVID-19 on tourism
Germany’s petroleum oil imports from Azerbaijan disclosed
Iran Metafo exhibition showcasing country's steel, mining industries
Azerbaijan discloses oil exports to Indonesia for 10M2021
NATO’s Mobile Training Team conducts courses - Azerbaijani MoD (PHOTO)
Iran’s SPGC launches final turbo compressor in 12th refinery at South Pars gas field
UAE announces move to Saturday-Sunday weekend
Bodies of 13 miners discovered at site of Kuzbass mine tragedy
Kazakhstan talks importance of building missing section of North-South transport corridor
Azerbaijan discloses oil exports to Thailand over 10M2021
Azerbaijan’s 10M2021 oil exports to Czech Republic revealed
Azerbaijan reveals oil exports to China in 10M2021
EAEU countries to reduce carbon emissions from rail transport
Omani, Saudi firms sign $30 bln in MoUs amid Saudi crown prince's visit
Iran's air fleet remains crippled as half of planes are 'irreparable'
Each visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to country's districts aimed at their dev’t, increasing welfare of citizens
Armenia to answer for crimes against Azerbaijan - hearings to be held in Hague today
Konul Nurullayeva's article on restoration of Karabakh published in 13 Arabic-language media organs (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan shows footage liberated Keshtazli village in Aghdam (VIDEO)
Azerbaijani oil prices increase
Georgia shares data on main economic activities of business sector
Azerbaijan eyes increasing fruit export
Renovation of thousands of old houses going on in Iran
Azerbaijan’s non-oil exports increase over 11M2021
President Ilham Aliyev receives delegation led by governor of Russia's Astrakhan region (PHOTO)
Iranian currency rates for Dec. 7
Qantas expects to reach 115% of pre-COVID domestic capacity levels by April
Uzbek and Kazakh companies launch joint venture for assembly of Chevrolet cars
Georgia releases COVID-19 data for December 7
Azerbaijan sees increase in mortgage lending in 11M2021
Azerbaijan’s AzerGold to engage consulting services through tender
Turkey discloses cargo traffic via local Ambarli port for 10M2021
Belgium pushing to develop economic relations with Iran
Reopening of industrial companies in Iran triggers return of workers
Russia greenlights tomato, apple supplies from more Azerbaijani enterprises
Uzbekneftegaz obtains industrial gas flow from South Kemachi field
Azerbaijani currency rates for December 7
Putin, Biden will particularly discuss operation of diplomatic missions — Kremlin
VISA supports Azerbaijan in digital banks dev’t
Uzbekistan shares domestic COVID-19 data for December 6
Azerbaijan discloses plan for strategic for dev’t of agrarian sector on liberated lands
Oil extends gains on easing Omicron fears, Iran delay
Azerbaijani MoD expresses condolences to Pakistan regarding military crash victims
India's COVID-19 tally rises to 34,648,383
Talks between Putin and Biden scheduled for 18:00 Moscow Time - White House
Kazakhstan’s AIFC aims to promote Green Investment Principle among financial institutions in Central Asia
Israel reports outbreak of bird flu at southern farm
Death toll from Java volcanic eruption rises to 22
IOC respects US’ decision to boycott upcoming Beijing Olympics
Mixing Pfizer, AstraZ COVID-19 shots with Moderna gives better immune response -UK study
France extends mask mandate in schools, orders nightclubs to close
UN chief names US diplomat Stephanie Williams to run Libya mediation
Iran ready for resultative talks on nuclear deal - top diplomat
Israel reports 10 new cases of Omicron variant
New York mayor plans vaccination mandate for private-sector employers
Russia, India to expand energy cooperation, says statement
IRICA reveals data on Iran’s trade turnover with ECO member states
Raisi: Iran welcomes development of ties with UAE
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan identify priority issues for cooperation
Saakashvili: reconciliation is the best option for everyone
Azerbaijan sends 100,000 vaccines to Burkina Faso
US announces diplomatic boycott of 2022 Beijing Olympics
Azerbaijani FM, US Assistant Secretary of State discuss latest situation in region
Armenia seen that, whole world seen that, no-one been able to stop us - President Ilham Aliyev
Israel lifts tariffs on dairy imports to cut prices
Young grew up who did not see Karabakh, they liberated Karabakh at cost of their lives – President Ilham Aliyev (VIDEO)
Azerbaijani Minister of Youth and Sports talks about appointment of new deputy minister
I tell them to give us date of when Zangazur corridor will be opened - President Ilham Aliyev to Armenia (VIDEO)
Azerbaijan discloses volume of oil exported to Turkey in 10M2021
Azerbaijani deputy defense minister leaves for Moscow
Forecast of Azerbaijani State Oil Fund’s total management costs for 2022 revealed
Turkmenistan approves anti-crisis program for 2022
Volume of cargo shipment via Turkish ports from Morocco for 10M2021 revealed
Ministry shares data on volume of cargo shipment via Turkish ports from Belgium for 10M2021
Volume of cargo shipment via Turkish ports from China for 10M2021 unveiled
Turkey discloses volume of cargo shipment via its ports from Germany for 10M2021
Cost of goods transported via sea up in Azerbaijan
President Ilham Aliyev, First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva visit monument to national leader Heydar Aliyev in Guba (PHOTO/VIDEO)
SOFAZ asset management revenue forecast for 2022 unveiled
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on December 7
Azerbaijan is creating social zone in industrial park of liberated Jabrayil district- ministry
Turkmenistan continues oil prospecting work on Cheleken peninsula
Uzbekistan shares data on import of potatoes in 10M2021
Price indexes of construction, trade sectors at Uzbek stock exchange fall
Galt & Taggart shares data on Georgia’s bonds on London Stock Exchange
Uzbekistan unveils volume of exports and imports
Georgia’s persimmon exports continue to increase
All news