US covertly incite Iranian hardliners to exit JCPOA

Commentary Materials 23 February 2019 13:22 (UTC +04:00)
The White House, which together with the EU plays the "bad cop, good cop" game with regards to Iranian nuclear deal, growingly needs to revive the threat of Iran's resumption of its nuclear activities to change the current status-quo.
US covertly incite Iranian hardliners to exit JCPOA

Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 23

By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:

The White House, which together with the EU plays the "bad cop, good cop" game with regards to Iranian nuclear deal, growingly needs to revive the threat of Iran's resumption of its nuclear activities to change the current status-quo.

This is only possible if Tehran makes an emotional decision to withdraw from the deal. How great it would look in the eyes of the world community!

Who in Iran can take such a desperate step? Hardliners.

All that has to be done by Washington is to discredit or, at least, keep ignoring peaceful initiatives of Iranian reformists headed by Rouhani, Zarif, Harrazi etc., and trigger hardliners towards an affective action amid challenging domestic and international problems the Islamic Republic is facing.

According to a report by Iranian Fars news agency, lawmaker Mojtaba Zolnour has been collecting signatures from other lawmakers to deny president Rouhani the vote of confidence and to remove him from power.

Later it turned out that the idea has failed, however, it sheds light on the spirit prevailing among the part of the Iranian establishment.

Conflicting views of Iranian authorities sounded during the week are also worth mentioning.

Iran is ready to work with regional states to preserve security in the Middle East, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said in a public speech on Sunday, according to a Reuters report. “We want to establish brotherly ties with all countries of the region.”

Attempts made by Rouhani to reduce the level of tension at least with their Arab neighbors and primarily with Saudi Arabia, pale amid aggressive statements by some other top officials, demonstrating the current balance of power in the country. They completely contradict what he said.

By comparison:

On Tuesday, Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) General Hossein Salami denounced the Saudi regime as the centerpiece of evil in the region and the world. “Al Saud must know that it won’t last long,” he stated.

On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Qassemi slammed the Saudi regime as “the true godfather of Takfiri terrorism” in the world. “Saudi Arabia as the cradle of the fundamentalist ideology and the source of exporting organized terrorism at the international level has no competence and credibility to accuse other countries of supporting terrorism,” he stressed.

On Tuesday, General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a top military aide to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said “there will be no trace of Al Saud regime in Saudi Arabia by 2030.”

Iranians sit down at their homes or in cybercafés and read:

Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) - a new mechanism designed by E3/EU that will allow safe trade with Iran and that should ensure the nuclear agreement is in place, has been registered, but is still months away from being fully operational, and key technical issues still need to be defined,” an Italian analyst Riccardo Alcaro told the Iranian Tasnim news agency.

Another independent researcher from the US, Pye Ian, is much more straightforward: “The launch of INSTEX to facilitate trade with Iran is seemingly a European circumvention of unilateral US sanctions on Iran, yet I believe it is merely another Trojan Horse tool…to inevitably infiltrate Iran’s banking, energy, industrial, defense, security and technological firewall capabilities across various industries.”

A new report from Democrats in the US House of Representatives concluded that the Trump administration is considering transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, bypassing Congress and possibly in violation of the Atomic Energy Act.

Why and for whom to leak such a report? What do Iranians feel seeing that things are getting worse with each passing day?

The American expectation is that hypocrisy and slowness of the EU3 putting up never-ending conditions before Tehran, increased terrorist attacks, sanctions and sharp recession of living standards will make, for example, the IRGC seize power, and, using the threat of massive civil unrest, persuade the Supreme leader to withdraw from the nuclear agreement.

To stay in the agreement or to get out of it - the difference for Iran is too small. In the eyes of hardliners, if Iran does decide to get out – it will be a new reality with new prospects.

They will also be more self-confident by the fact that in recent years the Islamic Republic has put into service a number of high-precision weapons, capable, as they believe, of causing serious damage to Israel and US military bases in the region, so that the United States and its allies will not dare to launch a military operation against Iran.

The hardliners will be sure there is the decision of their own. A former president of Iraq Saddam Hussein was thinking alike after he met with the US Ambassador April Glaspie on July 25, 1990 to discuss the “Kuwait issue”.

“The President had instructed me to broaden and deepen our relations with Iraq. We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait… the Kuwait issue is not associated with America,” then she said giving Saddam, as he was sure, carte blanche.

Exactly one week later on August 2, Iraq invaded Kuwait.

Less than a half year later, Operation Desert Storm began.