BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 27
By Maryana Akhmedova – Trend:
Georgia’s external balance from January through November 2021 strengthened due to robust recovery in remittances (25-percent increase year-on-year) and in tourism (36.7-percent of 2019 level recovery in revenues), Trend reports via the macroeconomic report from the Galt & Taggart.
Georgia’s exports over the first 11 months of 2021 rebounded strongly (26.7-percent increase year-on-year) due to the economic recovery of Georgia's trading partners, along with high world commodity prices, Galt & Taggart said.
Georgia’s imports in the reporting period of 2021 also grew strongly (24.5-percent increase year-on-year) amid strong local demand and higher world commodity prices, the report said.
International arrivals to Georgia from Ukraine, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Belarus and Uzbekistan over the first 11 months of 2021 recovered markedly, Galt & Taggart noted.
According to the forecast, there is room for recovery in arrivals to Georgia from neighboring countries (Russia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) from which arrivals are significantly below the pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels due to travel restrictions, expected to be lifted in 2022.
Among the factors that support Georgia’s rapid tourism recovery are the proximity to key tourist markets, limited business trips, and young visitors, the report said.
In a baseline scenario, Galt & Taggart forecast Georgia’s revenues from tourism to recover to 80-85 percent of 2019 level in 2022 and, considering above mentioned favorable factors, full recovery is also likely.
Meanwhile, with the rebound in external inflows, the current account deficit in Georgia is expected to narrow to 9.1 percent of the GDP in 2021, compared to 12.4 percent in 2020, and further to 7 percent of the GDP in 2022, Galt & Taggart said.
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