India on Saturday questioned the World Health Organisation's methodology to estimate COVID-19 mortalities in the country, saying using such a mathematical modelling cannot be applied to estimate the death figures for such a vast nation of geographical size and population.
The Union health ministry issued a statement in response to a New York Times article titled India Is Stalling WHO's Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public dated April 16, saying the country has on several occasions shared its concerns with the global health body over the methodology used.
India has been in regular and in-depth technical exchange with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the issue. The analysis, which uses mortality figures directly obtained from Tier I set of countries, uses a mathematical modelling process for Tier II countries (which includes India), the ministry said.
"India's basic objection has not been with the result (whatever they might have been), but rather the methodology adopted for the same.
"The model gives two highly different sets of excess mortality estimates of when using the data from Tier I countries and when using unverified data from 18 Indian states. Such a wide variation in estimates raises concerns about validity and accuracy of such a modelling exercise," the ministry said in the statement.
According to the health ministry, India has shared its concerns with the methodology along with other member states through a series of formal communications, including six letters issued to WHO (on November 17, December 20, 2021; December 28, 2021; January 11, 2022; February 12, 2022; and March 2, 2022) and virtual meetings held on December 16, 2021, December 28, 2021, January 6, 2022, February 25, 2022 and the SEARO Regional Webinar held on February 10, 2022.
During these exchanges, specific queries have been raised by India along with other member states -- China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt -- regarding the methodology, and use of unofficial sets of data.
The concern specifically includes on how the statistical model projects estimates for a country of geographical size and population of India and also fits in with other countries which have smaller population, the statement said.
Such one size fit all approach and models which are true for smaller countries like Tunisia may not be applicable to India with a population of 1.3 billion.
"WHO is yet to share the confidence interval for the present statistical model across various countries," the statement said.