Scenario: If Turkey's ruling party loses election

Scenario: If Turkey's ruling party loses election

Baku, Azerbaijan, May 8

By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:

Turkey will hold parliamentary elections in a month from now - on June 7. Some 20 political parties will participate. Despite such a large number of participants in the pre-election race, the main competition will be between the ruling Justice and Development Party and the Republican People's Party. This will happen because supporters of Fethullah Gulen's movement, both in Turkey and abroad, will vote for the Republican People's Party.

But this does not mean that other opposition parties, such as the National Movement Party and the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party will fail to get the necessary number of votes - 10 percent to be represented in the parliament.

Some 2.9 million Turkish citizens will vote at the polling stations abroad as part of the election.

There is no doubt that the upcoming election will be the most important one when compared to the previous parliamentary election. It will become important namely because each political party sees this day as a revenge match.

Now it is very hard to imagine how many votes the political parties will gain, but it is likely that the AKP will become the winner of this election. However, its expected victory does not mean that serious unrest is impossible after the election in Turkey.

One of the problems that will confront the AKP is a personnel one, because such important persons as Deputy Prime Ministers Bulent Arinc, Besir Atalay and Ali Babacan, Deputy Party Chairman Huseyin Celik, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu will not be able to comprise the new government, according to the charter of the ruling party. In addition to them, another 60 MPs from the ruling party will not be included in the new government, as they have already been elected to parliament three times.

Although the prime minister of Turkey affirms that the ruling party has powerful human resources, it is possible that the new government will not have the political immunity the old government had.

AKP, if it wins the parliamentary elections, will first of all start dealing with the new constitution. And in case of a failure to adopt the new constitution through a vote in the country's parliament, there can be held a general referendum.

One of the main reasons for the adoption of the new constitution is the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential form of government.

Another serious problem that AKP will face in case of its victory will be the actions of the pro-Kurdish party, HDP. The HDP leader, Selahattin Demirtas, has already said that if his party loses the parliamentary elections, it will urge its supporters to disobey the government.

Turkish authorities remember well from the October 2014 events, which engulfed Turkey's southeastern provinces, what consequences this statement can have.

What if the election is won by not Turkey's ruling party, but for example, by the Republican People's Party (CHP)? Will the Turkish republicans follow Greece's suit with regard to energy projects?

There is no doubt that in the case of victory, Republican People's Party of Turkey will not repeat the mistakes of the Greek government.

Recently, the party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said that if his party wins, he would continue to abide by all the economic and energy agreements of Turkey.

These remarks suggest that no matter how much the opposition criticizes the ruling party, it recognizes the importance of the projects that are currently implemented by the Justice and Development Party.

It is not ruled out that the Republican People's Party will first of all create relations with such countries as Syria, Egypt and Israel. And, it is not ruled out that this party will send the Syrian refugees back to their hometowns. Kilicdaroglu has also repeatedly promised this. Currently, there are 1.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, according to the official data.

This is while the Nationalist Movement Party is unlikely to significantly affect the parliamentary election. The main problem of this party is the lack of a young leader and the party's members also admit that.

Edited by CN


Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu

Benzol transshipment via Turkey's ports during 1H2020 disclosed
Benzol transshipment via Turkey's ports during 1H2020 disclosed
Cargo transshipment via Turkey's Iskenderun port for six months revealed
Cargo transshipment via Turkey's Iskenderun port for six months revealed
Bentonite transshipment via Turkey's ports in 1H2020 unveiled
Bentonite transshipment via Turkey's ports in 1H2020 unveiled
Loading Bars
Georgian ministry reveals volume of exported potatoes
Benzol transshipment via Turkey's ports during 1H2020 disclosed
National Bank of Georgia reveals volume of net profit received by banking sector
Germany, UK to persuade US to temporary lift sanctions against Iran
Cargo transshipment via Turkey's Iskenderun port for six months revealed
Georgian Health Ministry purchases rapid COVID-19 tests
Georgian Tskali Margebeli reveals volume of mineral water to be exported to Japan
AzEduNet seeking to attract investments for transferring schools to optic connection
Georgian olive oil replaces over 20% of imports
Iranian fisheries company interested in exporting their products to Turkmenistan
Russia's Ministry of Agriculture: Russia expands range of exports to Uzbekistan
Switzerland finances digital learning project of Uzbekistan
National Bank of Pakistan cease to operate in Uzbekistan
Iranian Energy Exchange announces products for sale on August 12
Thermal power plant to be commissioned in Iran's Shiraz industrial park
Bentonite transshipment via Turkey's ports in 1H2020 unveiled
Turkey reveals cargo shipment from Ukraine via its ports in 1H2020
Volume of wheat purchased in Iran's Kurdistan Province revealed
Coronavirus patients covered by supplementary insurance in Iran
Ukrtransnafta reveals volume of Azerbaijani oil transportation
Iran discloses number of stations being built in Iran's Shiraz county
Vienna University of Technology has announced admission for the first Master's program in Baku
Price for cars may decline in Iran
General Motors' Dhivya Suryadevara steps down as CFO
Kazakhstan increases oil export, petroleum goods production
Volume of wheat purchased in Iran announced
Return of blocked deposits in closed banks in Azerbaijan to begin in few days
Azerbaijan's Constitutional Court decides in favor of citizens on deposits in closed banks
Sale of Iran's oil bonds to bring profit to buyers
Afghanistan’s activity at Turkmen State Commodity Exchange in July 2020
Кazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company to buy construction materials via tender
Demand of Azerbaijani banks at Central Bank's currency auction fully met
Iran to review possible withdrawal from nuclear deal before US elections
Kazakhstan’s freight transportation operator opens tender for equipment maintenance
Iran's oil bonds not profitable during foreign currency crisis
Iran uses domestic nanotechnology to paint coating of airplanes
Insurance sector’s premiums up in Georgia
New inflow of natural gas received at Turkmenistan's Tajibay field
Uzbekistan aims to boost production of cement, construction materials
Iranian economist: Selling oil bonds - win-win deal
Turkish president receives Azerbaijani Foreign, Defense Ministers
Azerbaijan confirms 214 more COVID-19 recoveries
Uzbekistan establishes joint Uzbek-German asphalt production enterprise
Turkmenistan exports large volume of vegetables, fruits to EAEU countries
Iran's Shazand Oil Refining Company reveals amount of fuel produced for ships
Kazakhstan's foreign exchange reserves up month-on-month
Georgian Products Renaissance company expands export of its products
Saudi arabian company to build gas turbine power station in Uzbekistan
Prices of precious metals change in Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan increases tomato exports to EAEU
Georgian citizens arriving in Finland not to undergo compulsory quarantine
Uzbek-Korean JV to buy industrial vacuum cleaners via tender
Kazakhstan's import of Austrian-made goods plummets during COVID-19
Turkey unveils 1H2020 volume of gasoil movement through its ports
Mevlut Cavusoglu: Turkey always next to fraternal Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's PM holds phone talk with CEO of BP Group
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to rise
Iran talks about details of dairy products export
Volume of gas injected into storages in Azerbaijan disclosed
Turkish Anadolu news agency publishes interview with Azerbaijani MP Sevil Mikayilova on Azerbaijani-Turkish relations
Russia is first to register COVID-19 vaccine worldwide
French privacy watchdog opens preliminary investigation into TikTok
Azerbaijani currency rates for August 11
Demand for coal in Uzbekistan increases
Georgian Partnership Fund to sell its shares in Telasi energy distributor company
Design of upper block for Azerbaijan's Karabakh field being developed
Home purchases in Israel at 10-year peak in June
Iran's Tehran Oil Refining Company to boost its production
South Korean company to build cement plant in Uzbekistan
Azerbaijani FM: Azerbaijani-Turkish relations successfully developing in all areas
Azerbaijani president: Interest of foreign investors in oil and gas industry, in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas potential showing no sign of abating
Azerbaijani president: Just as we are returning to once abandoned Garabagh field today, we will return to our native Karabakh land in same manner
Iran to save foreign currency via domestic production
Turkmenistan’s Balkan region to increase volume of agricultural production
Amount of MOL Group’s provisions at Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli disclosed
Uzbekistan, Russia expanding bilateral cooperation in agro-industrial sector
Jackets for Azerbaijani Absheron field ready - BOS Shelf
Azerbaijani president: Garabagh field jacket demonstrates our strength again
FM: 29 agreements to be signed between Azerbaijan, Turkey
President Ilham Aliyev: First gas and oil at Garabagh field should be produced in two years – at the end of 2022
Azerbaijani FM to meet with Turkish president
Bos Shelf: Sail away of jacket for Azerbaijani ACE project expected in late 2021
President Ilham Aliyev: All projects are being implemented successfully
President Ilham Aliyev: By doing all this work, we are redrawing an energy map of Eurasia
Azerbaijani president: Southern Gas Corridor is our historic achievement
Iran exports major part of non-oil products to neighboring countries
Azerbaijani president: Then leadership of Azerbaijan – the PFPA-Musavat tandem – allowed for occupation of our lands
Georgian Healthcare Group removed from London Stock Exchange
Iran building new solar panel station
Iran reports its COVID-19 data for August 11
MOL Group reveals capex in Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli
Uzbekistan discovers new gas field in country's Bukhara region
MOL Group increases filling stations in Europe
European Gymnastics President: 38th edition of FIG Congress to be held in Antalya
Azerbaijani oil grows in price
BOS Shelf completes construction of largest offshore jacket in Caspian Sea
New wells put into operation at Iran's South Pars gas field
Azerbaijani, Turkish FMs holding meeting in Ankara (PHOTO)
Central Bank of Azerbaijan launches IFC-funded digital financial service project
Georgia's Herbia company plans to expand its operations
All news