Scenario: If Turkey's ruling party loses election
Baku, Azerbaijan, May 8
By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:
Turkey will hold parliamentary elections in a month from now - on June 7. Some 20 political parties will participate. Despite such a large number of participants in the pre-election race, the main competition will be between the ruling Justice and Development Party and the Republican People's Party. This will happen because supporters of Fethullah Gulen's movement, both in Turkey and abroad, will vote for the Republican People's Party.
But this does not mean that other opposition parties, such as the National Movement Party and the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party will fail to get the necessary number of votes - 10 percent to be represented in the parliament.
Some 2.9 million Turkish citizens will vote at the polling stations abroad as part of the election.
There is no doubt that the upcoming election will be the most important one when compared to the previous parliamentary election. It will become important namely because each political party sees this day as a revenge match.
Now it is very hard to imagine how many votes the political parties will gain, but it is likely that the AKP will become the winner of this election. However, its expected victory does not mean that serious unrest is impossible after the election in Turkey.
One of the problems that will confront the AKP is a personnel one, because such important persons as Deputy Prime Ministers Bulent Arinc, Besir Atalay and Ali Babacan, Deputy Party Chairman Huseyin Celik, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu will not be able to comprise the new government, according to the charter of the ruling party. In addition to them, another 60 MPs from the ruling party will not be included in the new government, as they have already been elected to parliament three times.
Although the prime minister of Turkey affirms that the ruling party has powerful human resources, it is possible that the new government will not have the political immunity the old government had.
AKP, if it wins the parliamentary elections, will first of all start dealing with the new constitution. And in case of a failure to adopt the new constitution through a vote in the country's parliament, there can be held a general referendum.
One of the main reasons for the adoption of the new constitution is the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential form of government.
Another serious problem that AKP will face in case of its victory will be the actions of the pro-Kurdish party, HDP. The HDP leader, Selahattin Demirtas, has already said that if his party loses the parliamentary elections, it will urge its supporters to disobey the government.
Turkish authorities remember well from the October 2014 events, which engulfed Turkey's southeastern provinces, what consequences this statement can have.
What if the election is won by not Turkey's ruling party, but for example, by the Republican People's Party (CHP)? Will the Turkish republicans follow Greece's suit with regard to energy projects?
There is no doubt that in the case of victory, Republican People's Party of Turkey will not repeat the mistakes of the Greek government.
Recently, the party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said that if his party wins, he would continue to abide by all the economic and energy agreements of Turkey.
These remarks suggest that no matter how much the opposition criticizes the ruling party, it recognizes the importance of the projects that are currently implemented by the Justice and Development Party.
It is not ruled out that the Republican People's Party will first of all create relations with such countries as Syria, Egypt and Israel. And, it is not ruled out that this party will send the Syrian refugees back to their hometowns. Kilicdaroglu has also repeatedly promised this. Currently, there are 1.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, according to the official data.
This is while the Nationalist Movement Party is unlikely to significantly affect the parliamentary election. The main problem of this party is the lack of a young leader and the party's members also admit that.
Edited by CN
Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu