Azerbaijan, Baku, March 9 / Trend A.Badalova /
OPEC's oil supplies will increase in 2012 by 1.9 million bpd to 31.45 million bpd on the backdrop of the continuous growth in global hydrocarbons demand and limited growth in oil supplies by non-OPEC countries, the U.S State Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Market Outlook.
The EIA predicted growth in OPEC's oil production at 1.2 million barrels per day (up to 31.03 million bpd) in its previous report.
The EIA expects that the decline in Libya's oil production, which is observed as a result of political unrests in the country, will be compensated by increased output from other OPEC members.
Libya is ranked eighth in terms of crude oil production among the 12 OPEC countries and third in Africa. Libya exports oil in large volumes to Italy, Germany, Spain, France, China and the United States. Austria, Great Britain, Greece and Switzerland import smaller volumes. Libyan oil import covers 51 percent of Italy's needs, 13 percent of Germany's and five percent of France's.
Based on the agency's estimates, the reductions in the country's oil production range from 850,000 to 1 million bpd.
The EIA forecasts OPEC's oil production to increase by 0.07 million bpd to 29.55 million bpd in 2011. The excess reserve capacity of OPEC will be reduced to 4.1 million bpd in 2011 and to 3.1 million bpd - in 2012 (compared to 4.4 million bpd in 2010).
Oil production by non-OPEC countries
The EIA forecasts an increase in oil supply by non-OPEC countries at 0.16 million bpd to 51.75 million barrels per day in 2011.
Based on the agency's report, the increase in production will be mainly concentrated in China and Brazil, where the annual growth in production is expected at 140,000 and 170,000 barrels per day, respectively.
In 2012, the EIA predicts a slight decrease in oil production by non-OPEC countries - to 51.72 million bpd.
Oil production in the North Sea will be reduced to 210,000 bpd in 2011 and 170,000 bpd- in 2012.
Oil production by the former Soviet Union countries is projected at 13.48 million bpd in 2011 and 13.3 million barrels a day - in 2012. Of the total level of oil production, 1.21 million bpd will fall to Azerbaijan in 2011 and 1.18 million bpd- in 2012, 1.75 million barrels in 2011 and 1.82 million barrels - in 2012 - Kazakhstan and 0.21 million bpd in 2011 and 2012 - Turkmenistan.
World oil production is projected to grow by 0.97 million barrels to 87.42 million bpd in 2011 and 2.18 million barrels to 89.6 million bpd - in 2012.
World oil demand
Based on the EIA's forecast, world oil demand will increase in 2011 by 1.51 million bpd to 88.2 million bpd. Of the figure, 45.97 million bpd will fall to the OECD and 42.23 million bpd - non-OECD countries.
The EIA predicts an increase in world oil demand at 1.68 million bpd to 89.88 million bpd in 2012.
Oil demand in OECD will increase by 0.12 million barrels to 46.09 million bpd in 2012 and .56 million to 43.79 million bpd in Non-OECD counties.
Oil prices
The EIA raised the forecast on the price for the U.S. grade oil of WTI for 2011 at $ 9 per barrel to $102 per barrel.
The EIA expects further modest price increases on the oil to $105 per barrel in 2012 compared to $ 98 per barrel it predicted last month.
Oil prices on world markets dropped this week on the backdrop of the statements by OPEC on a possible increase in the cartel's production volume. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah said OPEC consults on the need to hold an emergency meeting and increase the oil production quotas. Decision on this matter is still pending, he said.
Following the auction on Tuesday, March 8, the April futures price for WTI fell by $0.42 to $105.02 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The April futures price for Brent fell by $1.98 per barrel to $113.06 per barrel.
The Energy Information Administration is a statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy established by Congress in 1977.