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Yerevan’s failed phone call or why Trump did not respond

Armenia Materials 6 December 2016 21:02 (UTC +04:00)
The closer the date of inauguration of the newly elected US president is, the more guesses, assumptions and comments concerning the development of the US relations with the international community arise.
Yerevan’s failed phone call or why Trump did not respond

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 6

By Elmira Tariverdiyeva – Trend:

The closer the date of inauguration of the newly elected US president is, the more guesses, assumptions and comments concerning the development of the US relations with the international community arise.

In today’s world, phone calls made after election of a country’s head have very subtle diplomatic overtones that hide big failures or hopes.

Moreover, everything in significant – who made a call, in what order the newly elected leader prefers to talk to colleagues and what they discuss during these phone calls.

Most closely community follows phone calls of such major regional players as Donald Trump, the newly elected US president.

For example, his conversation with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin gave the observers hope that the relations between the two countries will change for the better, while his conversation with the heads of the Baltic states turned into some embarrassment, as reported by CNN.

But the real disaster was an attempt of the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan to pay homage to the new US president - Trump decided not to spend time on this and Mike Pence, the newly elected vice-president, had a conversation with Sargsyan.

The fact that the conversation was initiated by the US side only means that when Sargsyan requested a conversation with Trump and was eager to congratulate his US counterpart on being elected, the future US president’s administration paused for reflection, and then, having made the decision, called back to Yerevan.

The fact that the US pointedly opposed the US vice-president to the Armenian president on diplomatic chess board speaks of Trump’s not seeing a reason to communicate with such a small international player, whose importance and role is turned into a kind of Russia appendix.

This Armenian diplomatic failure reaffirmed that Hillary Clinton’s electoral defeat as a democratic candidate was a big disappointment for Yerevan. It is known that Clinton maintained fairly close relationships with an extensive Armenian diaspora in the US. However, Trump’s policy towards Armenia will remain quite alert.

Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) dots the i's and cross the t's in the issue of Armenia’s orientation to pro-Russian policy.

What is more frustrating for Yerevan is that Azerbaijan is a quite familiar country to Trump. Trump has previously invested in Azerbaijan and he undoubtedly understands the country’s attractiveness in terms of investment – the country which not only plays an important role for the West from the point of view of cooperation in energy security, but which also pursues independent policy oriented towards the national interests.

The prospect of establishing relations between Moscow and Washington can be another concern for Armenia. The US has always tried not to go beyond the OSCE Minsk Group in its initiatives to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Taking into account that Russia is more inclined towards Azerbaijan in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia may try to convince US to support its plan in the conflict resolution, in case the countries normalize relations.

Since Trump is likely to stake on Azerbaijan and to strengthen relations with Russia, Armenia will be in a difficult situation. In other words, if Moscow monopolizes the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation process by silent consent of the Trump administration, it can lead to real changes in favor of Azerbaijan.

All this leaves Yerevan no hope for the new US administration, while no one allowed Sargsyan to secure himself. Trump just didn't answer the call. It is likely that the future US leader has more important things to do, so the Armenian diplomatic failure was very predictable.

Elmira Tariverdiyeva is the head of Trend Agency’s Russian news service

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