Experts: Brazil unlikely to persuade Iran to agree with UN Security Council's terms
Azerbaijan, Baku, May 15 /Trend, T.Konyayeva/
During his visit to
Iran, the President of Brazil will unlikely be able to persuade Iran to accept the proposal of UN Security Council to exchange of uranium, so the new sanctions can not be avoided, experts say.
"The visit of the Brazilian president, and even the joint Brazilian-Turkish initiative will likely have little impact,"
Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said after talks with his Brazil counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that Brazilian president's visit to Iran may be the final opportunity to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem without introducing new sanctions of the UN Security Council and to persuade Iran to accept the so-called "Vienna formula" on uranium exchange.
Carpenter said he is even more pessimistic than President Medvedev about solving the Iranian nuclear issue.
"Sanctions are almost certain, although Chinese and Russian efforts assure that any new sanctions will be as diluted as possible," Carpenter said.
U.S. and other Western countries accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons for military purposes under the guise of peaceful nuclear energy program, and currently discuss the introduction of new economic sanctions against Iran. However, Tehran rejects the accusations, claiming that its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.
China, who previously opposed the introduction of new tough measures against Iran and urged a diplomatic solution, joined the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany in their support for the IAEA resolution, insisting, however, on conducting a "dual path" strategy for Iran, involving the combination of sanctions and negotiations.
Even robust economic sanctions would probably not prevent Iran from pursuing its nuclear program, Carpenter said.
So far, UN Security Council has adopted five resolutions, three of which provide for economic sanctions against Iran, to suspend Iran's nuclear program.
According to the information provided in early March by the newspaper "New-York Times" with reference to the UN diplomats, the Security Council's main proposals are the introduction of new restrictions against Iranian banking, insurance systems, navigation, etc.
Only military force would have that potential, but launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities would risk triggering a general war in the Middle East. That would be a case of the cure being even worse than the disease, Carpenter said.
"Unless the United States and the other major powers want to take that high-stakes gamble, the world needs to accept the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran within a few years," he said.
Tehran uses discord of Turkey and Brazil with the adoption of new restrictions to gain time, U.S expert on Iran, Robert Freedman, said.
"I think Iran will use the openings to both Turkey and Brazil to stall as long as possible. I don't think they are ready for a real deal,"the Strategic Studies Institute Researcher Professor Robert O. Freedman told Trend via e-mail.
Two very important non-permanent members of UN Security Council - Brazil and Turkey stood against toughening of sanctions against Iran in April.
During a recent two-day visit to Iran Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said that pressure from other countries will not have any impact on its country's desire to maintain a peaceful nuclear program in Tehran. He added that the imposition of new sanctions will not lead to any positive results .
The University of Glazgow professor Reza Taghizadeh also thinks that the visit of Brazilian President to Iran will not bring the desired result.
"It is likely that when the weekend is over, Lula will head home empty-handed despite statements by both sides that presumably say the talks were "positive, informative, and constructive." But the real result of the 11th-hour mission to Tehran will be that it will provide the Security Council with the justification it needs to adopt a new set of sanctions," Reza Taghizadeh told Trend over phone from London.