Expert: Destabilization of situation in Kyrgyzstan in near future not expected

Politics Materials 8 December 2010 17:44 (UTC +04:00)
Despite numerous fears, the situation in Kyrgyzstan should not be expected to destabilize in the near future, Russian expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov said.

Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 8 /Trend, V.Zhavoronkova/

Despite numerous fears, the situation in Kyrgyzstan should not be expected to destabilize in the near future, Russian expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov said.

"I do not think that it is worthy to expect serious unrest in Kyrgyzstan, threatening the stability and security of foreign nationals," a commentator for 'News Time' newspaper Dubnov wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
Kyrgyzstan is in the process of forming the first government of the country after changing governance system from presidential to parliamentary. The Central Asian republic became parliamentary after the referendum conducted last summer, which confirmed the decision of the new government. It came to power after the overthrow of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April.

Now the country waits for the formation of a parliamentary majority coalition, which will have to elect a government and then prime minister. The first possibility of forming a government was given to the leader of faction SDPK Almazbek Atambayev, who on Dec. 3 notified the acting president of terminating the attempts in this regard. The next mandate has been provided to the leader of the parliamentary faction "Republic" Omurbek Babanov. It is still unknown whether he will be able to cope with this task.

Observers are concerned about the created situation in the country regarding delay in forming a government, fearing a new destabilization in the country.

"According to Dubnov, the revival of street rallies can be expected in the spring, but this prediction comes true if the winter, as promised, will not be cold," said the expert.

Otherwise, according to Dubnov, if the efforts of the authorities to construct houses for those, who lost them during the June unrest in southern Kyrgyzstan, fail, it will be difficult to exclude certain "excitement" of the situation in the south before the spring.

According to experts, the formation of the parliamentary coalition in the country continues under the laws of revolutionary expediency, rather than electoral logic.

"The President instructs to form a coalition, taking into account the creation of a ruling majority from parties headed by leaders who played a leading role in the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, said Dubnov. - However, these parties in the parliamentary elections on Oct. 10 could not gain the mandate of the trust of most voters."
Those three parties, which attempted to create the first coalition - SDPK, Ata-Meken and Republic - gained not more than 20 percent of the votes that does not give them a special right to represent all the people, he said, not mentioning the fact that "some of them are not political parties in the true sense.
"They have been created, or as they say, sharpened under the election," said Dubnov.
According to him, this is fraught with splits within them, or lack of party discipline, which resulted in unconsolidated vote on the candidacy of Speaker (Omurbek Tekebayev) and was the cause of the collapse of the first coalition which did not live three days.

On the other hand, it is not worthy to panic because of the apparently protracted process of forming a coalition, experts said.
The "people less prepared for the civilized legislative activities came to the parliament after the revolution, they now get along together with each other, building some ratings inside the parliament, identifying leaders and outsiders, said Dubnov.

"But if the revolutionary expediency remains the dominant political process in Kyrgyzstan in constructing a governance system, the "resistance of the material" in the parliament is threatened with explosion," he said.

According to the expert, this may be found in case of failure of the second attempt to form a coalition when the next third attempt, according to the constitution, will be made by the parliament itself, and will not be assigned to anyone by the president.

"So, I would not be in a hurry in conclusions about Kyrgyzstan's readiness for a parliamentary system of government, said Dubnov. - It may be that current attempts to create such a system would be a kind of transit process to gain an access to configuration of power affordable only for the republic, eliminating drift towards authoritarian model."

However, according to the expert, all these will be possible only if they succeed to keep control in the country and prevent a new spiral of chaos and strife, but, unfortunately, there is not guarantee for that.