Aynur Gasimova, head of the Trend European desk
Last week the U.S. Senate was marked with serious debate on the long-awaited ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the United States and Russia.
The Presidents of Russia and the U.S. signed a new START treaty on April 8, 2010 in Prague. The sides intend to reduce the total number of warheads by one third - up to 1550 warheads and 700 carriers for each side for seven years. The treaty must be approved by both houses of Russian Parliament, as well as firstly by the U.S. Senate. Why firstly by the Senate, because it is clear that the State Duma will ratify the treaty immediately after its approval by the U.S. side.
The previous START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired in late 2009. Since that time, for the first time in decades, the two countries ceased to hold mutual nuclear inspections and monitoring.
At least 67 votes of senators are necessary for ratifying the treaty. Last week the Senate voted 66 against 32, in fact, the Democrats did not have a single vote. At the same time, Democrats in the Senate believe that in the final voting, they will get votes necessary for them.
Republicans currently are dragging out the decision-making process, constantly amending the treaty, which inhibit the voting process. Thus, Republicans could achieve postponement of voting in the current Senate and move ratification to the next year, when the number of Democrats will reduce because of the midterm congressional elections in November. Currently, seven senators have stated support for the treaty, in all the Democrats need to gain the support of nine Republicans to make the treaty ratified. According to the rules, the document must be approved by two-thirds of House members.
Ratification of the new START treaty would be considered a major achievement of President Obama and would become the starting point for implementation of the plans of the current U.S. administration on non-nuclear world. Although to which extent such plans can be implemented is a disputable question. However, it must be admitted that the U.S. and Russia, as a minimum, would be able to, on a reciprocal basis, obtain information about the weapons that lead to stability and predictability in relations between the two countries. Entry into force of the new START treaty as a whole will make a great contribution to maintaining peace and security.
U.S. and Russia possess 96 percent of the world's nuclear weapons and in case of implementation of the treaty, the countries may reduce the number of deployed strategic weapons, and recreate a system of mutual monitoring. Greater role in promoting the START in the U.S. Senate was played by the EU support for the ratification.
On Wednesday, the EU foreign ministers appealed to the sides by letter, calling up to accelerate the ratification of the treaty. European Union countries are interested in stepping up joint efforts to fight for disarmament, arms control and nonproliferation, the letter says. "The ratification of the new START treaty will strengthen the international non-proliferation regime and contribute to curbing the countries violating the commitments they have undertaken under the NPT. Accordingly, it will positively impact on international security, including security of America and Europe. Its effect is not limited to Europe, it will be global. That is why the ratification of the treaty and its entry into force is in our common interests," said a senior European official.
The NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, also noted the importance of ratification after the Lisbon summit of the organization in November, noting that the delay in ratification could damage security in Europe.
"Restart" of relations with Russia, which Obama began after coming to power, is already bearing fruit. The West and Russia began to cooperate in a completely new format. It is also necessary to note the concessions that Russia has already done. At the meeting of NATO-Russia Council in Lisbon, President Medvedev has made a big step towards cooperation by agreeing on Russia's participation in the development of European missile defense system in cooperation with NATO. Plus, Moscow no longer occupies the same position with respect to Iran, which is evidenced by the agreement on the introduction of tough UN sanctions against Iran and the refusal to sell anti-aircraft missile system S-300 to Tehran. It is likely that in the context of deepening cooperation with the West, as early as next year, Russia will be admitted to the WTO. To reinforce the effect of rapprochement between Moscow and the West, the ratification of the new START treaty is very important at this point.
Today the Republican senators acknowledged that they have lost the battle to Democrats, and the Senate is likely to ratify the treaty in the current week. If the treaty is ratified in the coming days, it will be a great victory of the Democrats and individual merits of Obama, who never ceased lobbying for a new START treaty.
Obama needs to do everything to make the treatys ratified by the end of the year, otherwise it can lead to Moscow's mistrust in his government, given that the President has undertaken commitments, which have not been able to fulfill for already eight months. Also this could lead to the fact that Russia may no longer want to conclude large-scale treaties with the U.S.
Thus, in the last days of December, not only the fate of START, but also the fate of the relations between the two influential international players - the U.S. and Russia, is determined and the outcome of "reset" also depends on the current decision of the Senate.