Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 26
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:
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The new Ukrainian government is doomed to failure, according to the Ukrainian political scientist and director of Stratagem Center of Political Analysis, Yuri Romanenko.
"This government will not last long because it is not provided with resources ... and in fact it is created by the political forces that led the country to the collapse. And its credibility is low," Romanenko told Trend on Feb.26.
Romanenko recalled that the political providers of the new power is the opposition troika of Vitali Klitschko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleg Tyagnibok, plus the representatives of the former parliamentary majority, which previously supported President Viktor Yanukovych, but during popular protests began to hesitate and entered into a coalition with the opposition.
The new authorities are trying to live as of old, to appoint corrupt officials to local offices and it causes great indignation of the people, according to the expert.
"Therefore, the government will not last long. Maximum until October, although most likely not longer than until May. Given the way the things are going, I would bet more on the short-term rather than long-term," the political scientific said.
The participants in the revolution in Ukraine are foreign forces, Ukrainian oligarchs and the awakening people, according to Romanenko.
"The first level of participants is the external players who have their own interests here. This is the U.S., that play through Poland, the EU, and first of all Germany, and Russia, which has a huge interest and most powerful positions here. The second level are oligarchs, which became the providers of this conflict, organized, launched Maidan ...The third player of this great Ukrainian revolution is the waking up people," the expert said.
The expert recalled that during the "orange revolution" of 2004, oligarchs also contributed to Maidan in every way through the constitution of 2004, which allowed them to take all the dominating positions. And today, they will also try to benefit from the situation and to increase what they have, and to maximally maintain the power, according to Romanenko. However, as distinct from the revolution of 2004, people are much more active today.
"In 2004, the people were under the umbrella of 'Our Ukraine' political force led by Viktor Yushchenko, who then became president. And they saw Yushchenko as a good king, who will make their lives better. Today, the situation is fundamentally different. Because the political structures of the opposition are weak and in fact they controlled 'the masses' very poorly," Romanenko said.
As a result, on the one hand, the parliamentary opposition, which undertook to hold negotiations with foreign players and the presidential administration, was fighting against Viktor Yanukovych's regime. On the other hand, the fighting was conducted by the Maidan groups which ensured the mobilization, organization and which included a large number of voluntary group activists.
"The opposition trio, which now became the power, is part of the old power, because they all operated under the agreements between themselves. Maidan puts forward counter-elite," the expert said.
External actors with the oligarchs, who played the card so as to satisfy their interests participated in the first phase of the revolution, according to Romanenko. In this phase Yanukovych was broken and oligarchic consensus was established, just as it emerged in 2010, when Yanukovych came to power and in 2004 when Yushchenko came to power.
Now a new government will arise from this consensus. But this logic comes into opposition with the logic of the masses, who do not want to live as of old. Therefore, the second phase of the revolution is coming, the expert said.
"The key conflict of the second phase will be the conflict between oligarchs and masses of people who become a subject of this game and gain their political form ... These two ideas will oppose each other and as a result the people will crush the weak oligarchic government of the former opposition troika, which is now being formed," he said.
Romanenko said there will also come a third phase of the revolution, associated with the conflict's escalation, the new regime's destabilization and the power struggle.
"And then stability will come, the regime will collapse and there will be a new mode of the republic, if of course, we do not fall into civil war and Ukraine does not collapse," the analyst said.
He believes that the possibility of civil conflict between Ukraine's eastern and western parts is very likely.
"If a strong government had been quickly established, then this could have been avoided. But given the errors made by the troika, there will be a power struggle with varying degrees of intensity," he said.
However, the split of Ukraine is profitable neither for external players, particularly Russia and Europe, nor for local oligarchs, Romanenko said.
He stressed that for external players such an outcome will create a huge number of challenges in division of property, control over strategic structures, and curbing a huge number of migrants who can gush from Ukraine's population of 40 million.
The oligarchs, in this case will lose their assets and therefore this scenario is also uninteresting for them. So, everything will be done to preserve the integrity of Ukraine.
The expert said the main task of the new government's foreign policy will be finding the money to finance "voids" in the budget, which were inherited from the previous regime.
"Most likely, Ukraine will have an association with the EU, and in this case a unique situation may emerge, when we will be in the economic field of both Russia and the EU," he said.
Romanenko stressed that such a situation will satisfy Russia, as in this case, it will improve the control over Ukraine's assets, but will not suffer additional costs in exchange.
"Russia's policy is super-pragmatic and the country acts in line with the inter-corporate interest, behind which there are interests of big capital," he said.
Ukraine in such a position will get financial aid from the West and avoid default.
"IMF and Europe will give the money. This is almost a sure thing. These funds will be enough to prop up the economy, at least throughout this year and build a model that is less resource-intensive ... Russia also has not refused to provide the money, offered by it," he said.
However, Romanenko believes that Ukraine's further financial state depends on the whole set of factors.
"The matter does not rest in money; the matter rests in the correct reconfiguration of the regime. Ukraine has many resources. If we close down the corruption, we will have a positive payments balance and the problem will be solved by itself," the expert said.
Translated by L.Z. and E.A.
Edited by C.N.