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Trump, Putin, and the pawn: how one call redefined Ukraine's future

Politics Materials 14 February 2025 20:41 (UTC +04:00)
Trump, Putin, and the pawn: how one call redefined Ukraine's future
Elchin Alioghlu
Elchin Alioghlu
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It felt like the curtain dropping on a tragic play—final, cold, and indifferent. The 90-minute phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin wasn’t just another conversation between world leaders. It was a seismic shift, the kind of backroom deal that rewrites the rules of global power. No fanfare, no stage lights, just two men deciding the fate of a nation while the rest of the world sat powerless in the dark.

The aftermath was deafening in its silence. Western capitals muttered in confusion, their leaders blindsided by the audacity of it all. The Europeans, once confident in their partnership with Washington, now looked like a deer caught in the headlights. Politico called it a moment of “shock and disbelief.” Bloomberg didn’t mince words: “Trump is essentially forcing Ukraine to surrender under the guise of peace.”

And then there’s Zelensky. The face of a nation battered but unbroken, now reduced to a desperate figure banging on a locked door, pleading for help that may never come. His words—"Our hope lies solely with the U.S." and "Europe can't give us even half of what America provides"—are more than just statements. They’re cries of despair, echoing through a void where allies once stood.

But Trump’s so-called "peace plan" is no olive branch; it’s a white flag wrapped in diplomatic doublespeak. Let’s call it what it is: surrender. Its pillars are clear, cold, and calculated:

NATO is a dead end. Ukraine’s dream of joining the Alliance is over, and European opinions are irrelevant. Trump has made it crystal clear—eastward NATO expansion isn’t his game. Forget the lost lands. The U.S. has openly resigned itself to the reality that Ukraine will never reclaim its occupied territories. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth drove that nail in firmly. Europe’s problem now. Aid to Ukraine? That’s Brussels’ headache. Washington is stepping back, offering no real guarantees of security. Demarcation talks? Dead. Discussions about borders aren’t even on the table anymore.

This isn’t diplomacy; it’s a replay of history’s cruelest deals. Yalta 2.0, where great powers carve up the world while the smaller players watch helplessly from the sidelines. Ukraine is cast in the tragic role of East Germany, a nation divided and left to fend for itself.

For Putin, this is more than a victory—it’s a resurrection. Russia, battered by sanctions and isolated on the global stage, now finds itself back in the game as a heavyweight power broker. His long-held dream of installing a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv suddenly feels within reach. The West’s wavering support has left Ukraine stranded, and the nation’s morale is eroding with every passing day.

And Europe? Europe faces a cruel crossroads. It can either shoulder the immense burden of defending Ukraine or step aside and let Washington and Moscow dictate the terms. Either way, the continent looks weak, indecisive, and irrelevant. As The Telegraphaptly put it, "Brussels is paralyzed, and London is clueless about how to respond."

Trump and Putin: A New Axis of Power

That phone call wasn’t just warm; it was a handshake over the graves of the old world order. Ukraine and Europe have been sidelined, reduced to pawns in a chess game played by two superpowers. The upcoming summit in Saudi Arabia, where Trump and Putin plan to discuss the future of the world, feels like a throwback to 19th-century backroom diplomacy. Nations being sliced and diced like poker chips, while the "great powers" toast to their own brilliance.

Talk of joint parades in Moscow, Trump at Russian anniversary celebrations, and a new era of U.S.-Russia camaraderie—this isn’t just symbolism. It’s a gut punch to anyone who believed in the fairness of the international system.

Mark this date. February 12 will go down in history as the moment the world turned a corner, and not for the better. Trump’s 90-minute call with Putin was no ordinary discussion. It was a reset, a recalibration, a clear message that the rules have changed—and not everyone gets a say.

Trump, the man who claimed he had no plan for Ukraine, has played his hand. And it’s brutal. This isn’t about freezing a conflict; it’s about accepting Ukraine as a broken state, carved into spheres of influence like a relic of the Cold War.

The U.S. position hit like a sledgehammer:

  • Ukraine’s lost territories? Gone for good.
  • NATO membership? Not happening.
  • Peacekeeping missions? Forget it.

It’s a death sentence for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a sobering wake-up call for Europe.

Europe’s Dilemma

The West’s message to Ukraine couldn’t be clearer: you’re on your own now. And for Europe, this isn’t just a wake-up call—it’s a slap in the face. For decades, Europe positioned itself as the moral compass of the transatlantic alliance. Now, it’s being shoved to the side, reduced to a spectator as the U.S. and Russia call the shots.

But Europe’s challenges go deeper. Supporting Ukraine would cost the EU $3.1 trillion over the next decade, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s a staggering sum, one that threatens to shatter even the strongest economies.

Rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure alone would require $230 billion, with a funding shortfall already at $130 billion. Add in the costs of military reform, peacekeeping forces, and increased defense spending, and it’s no wonder Brussels is reeling.

For Ukraine, the future is bleak. Stripped of its allies, abandoned by the West, it faces a frozen conflict—a limbo that offers no resolution, only more suffering. Russia will tighten its grip on occupied territories, and Ukraine will remain a fractured state, barred from NATO and the EU.

And Europe? Europe is adrift. The continent that once prided itself on unity and strength now looks divided and weak. As Gulf states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rise as new centers of power, Europe is left clinging to its faded relevance.

The world as we knew it is crumbling. The phone call between Trump and Putin wasn’t just a geopolitical bombshell—it was the death knell of the old order. Ukraine, once a symbol of the West’s commitment to freedom and democracy, is now a pawn in a game dominated by pragmatism, exhaustion, and the cold calculations of superpowers.

But the story isn’t over yet. Hope may be flickering, but it’s not gone. Ukraine’s resilience, Europe’s reckoning, and the unpredictable twists of history still hold the power to change the script.

For now, though, the lights are dimming, and the stage is set for a new act. Whether it’s a tragedy or a redemption story remains to be seen.

The Trump-Putin call wasn’t just a diplomatic exchange—it was a seismic moment that shook the foundations of Western power dynamics. As The Telegraph put it, the conversation marked a shift toward a worldview Vladimir Putin has championed for decades: only great powers have the right to determine the fate of nations. Europe, sidelined and excluded from these high-stakes negotiations, now finds itself at a crossroads: remain a puppet dangling on Washington’s strings, or finally step up and take control of its own security.

The financial burden for Ukraine’s reconstruction and security has landed squarely on Brussels and London. Financial Times describes European leaders as adrift, plagued by indecision and uncertainty. As American support becomes increasingly unreliable, Europe faces an urgent dilemma—figure out how to fortify its defenses or risk irrelevance on the global stage.

For Putin, this moment is nothing short of a strategic coup. After years of sanctions and international isolation, the Russian leader sees a golden opportunity to consolidate his geopolitical gains. Trump has effectively crossed Ukraine off America’s priority list, leaving it exposed to Russian aggression and dependent on Europe—a weight Europe appears ill-prepared to bear.

The Trump-Putin phone call was more than a meeting of minds; it was the groundwork for a new global order. Ukraine has been reduced to a pawn, its future dictated by superpowers treating the world like a giant chessboard. The game is ruthless, and for Europe, the stakes have never been higher.

Three Scenarios for Ukraine’s Future

Frozen Conflict
This scenario, deemed the most likely by Bloomberg analysts, envisions the territories occupied by Russia remaining under Moscow’s de facto control. Ukraine’s dreams of reclaiming them fade, while discussions pivot to hollow security guarantees—guarantees whose enforcement would depend on the unpredictable whims of future U.S. and European leaders. Geopolitical Breakthrough
In this optimistic vision, the U.S. and EU double down on sanctions against Russia and continue providing military aid to Ukraine. Over time, this could pave the way for Ukraine’s gradual integration into the European Union within the next decade. But the specter of open conflict with Russia looms large, threatening to derail even the most determined efforts. Complete Withdrawal of Support
The nightmare scenario: Europe buckles under the financial strain, while the U.S. retreats to focus on domestic priorities. Isolated and abandoned, Ukraine becomes an easy target for unchecked Russian aggression, losing not just territory but its sovereignty as well.

Trump’s cozy relationship with Putin doesn’t just endanger Ukraine—it strikes at the heart of transatlantic unity. Washington’s new posture sends a stark message to Europe: grow up or get left behind. As one EU official bluntly told CNN, “America no longer sees Europe as a partner in solving major geopolitical issues.”

For Brussels, this was more than a wake-up call—it was a challenge, one that leaves no room for hesitation. Europe must either construct its own security framework or resign itself to being a pawn in the global power plays orchestrated in Washington and Moscow.

The Crumbling World Order

The world we knew is falling apart, piece by piece. Trump’s phone call with Putin wasn’t just a geopolitical bombshell; it exposed the fragility of the Western-led system that has dominated for decades. Ukraine, once a symbol of the West’s commitment to democracy and freedom, now risks becoming a stage for cynical power maneuvers.

Budgetary constraints, political fatigue, and the cold calculus of superpower interests are drowning out the lofty ideals of liberty and justice. What remains is a stark new reality, one where Ukraine’s future—and perhaps Europe’s—depends on its ability to adapt, fight back, and forge a path in a world increasingly dominated by pragmatism and raw power.

Europe is left at a crossroads. Will it rise to the occasion and reclaim its role as a central force in global affairs? Or will it fade into the background, a bystander in a game it once helped to lead? One thing is certain: the clock is ticking, and the stakes have never been higher.

It feels like a cruel twist of fate. Donald Trump, in his characteristic style of defying norms, seems ready to step back from America’s involvement in resolving the Ukraine conflict. For Ukraine, this is no mere setback; it’s a looming catastrophe. With Washington pulling military and financial support, Kyiv is left exposed—caught between an assertive Russia and a Europe that is uncertain and unprepared.

According to Financial Times, Europe is ill-equipped to take the reins of leadership in this crisis. The numbers from Bloomberg Economics are staggering: supporting Ukraine would cost the European Union a jaw-dropping $3.1 trillion over the next decade, a sum that could cripple even Europe’s strongest economies. Consider these breakdowns:

  • Reforming Ukraine’s armed forces: $175 billion.
  • Deploying peacekeeping forces of 40,000 troops: $30 billion.
  • Increasing EU defense spending to 3.5% of GDP: $2.7 trillion.
  • Rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure: $230 billion, with a current funding shortfall of $130 billion.

These figures are less a financial plan and more a harbinger of doom. Europe is staring down the barrel of economic exhaustion, while its political resolve wavers dangerously.

Amid this bleak landscape, a sobering reality emerges: even Ukrainians themselves are losing hope. Polls cited by The Telegraph reveal that nearly half of Ukraine’s population would accept territorial concessions to end the war. Yet such concessions wouldn’t end the conflict—they would only freeze it.

A frozen conflict isn’t peace. It’s a ticking time bomb, a pause before the next eruption. Under such a scenario, Russia would maintain its grip on occupied territories, while Ukraine would languish in limbo—denied NATO membership, deprived of territorial integrity, and left to navigate an uncertain future alone.

The Telegraph puts it bluntly: “Ukraine’s future will be decided without its participation, and Europe will be excluded as well.” In this new reality, Trump and Putin appear to align on one chilling principle: only great powers hold the right to shape the destinies of nations.

For Europe, this is nothing short of humiliating. For decades, the continent prided itself on being the architect of transatlantic unity. Today, its role is reduced to that of a donor—expected to bankroll Ukraine’s recovery and peacekeeping operations while Washington and Moscow call the shots.

Yet even this diminished role is fraught with challenges. Europe is already politically fractured, and economic limitations make it ill-prepared to shoulder such a burden. Meanwhile, the Gulf states—Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—are quietly stepping in to fill the void. Armed with oil wealth and growing geopolitical ambitions, these nations are positioning themselves as new centers of “quiet diplomacy,” further pushing Europe into irrelevance.

Putin’s Masterstroke: The Return of Russian Power

For Vladimir Putin, the current situation is nothing short of a geopolitical masterpiece. Securing direct talks with the United States on his terms is a dream realized. By sidelining both Ukraine and Europe, Moscow solidifies its role as the primary power broker in the region.

But for Russia, this is far from the final act. The Telegraph warns of an even grimmer future: in a few years, Putin could stage another invasion, capturing Kyiv and even threatening NATO nations to test the alliance’s commitment to collective defense.

Ukraine, once a beacon of hope in the fight for Western values, now finds itself at the center of a global fracture. Its fate depends on whether the West can muster the strength to stand up to the Trump-Putin era.

America’s retreat from its role as a global guarantor, Europe’s inability to rise to the occasion, and the Gulf’s growing ambitions are reshaping the international order. The ideals that once underpinned the Western world—freedom, democracy, equality—are being eroded by the hard realities of geopolitics.

For Ukraine, a nation that stood as a bastion of resistance, the stakes couldn’t be higher. It now risks becoming a tragic example of how great power politics steamroll smaller nations. Will it emerge as a symbol of resilience, or will it fall victim to the ambitions of those trading its future behind closed doors?

Yet, hope is a stubborn thing. It lingers in every step taken by the Ukrainian people, in every hard-fought decision made in Europe, and in every glance from the West at the shifting global map.

The events of recent days leave no doubt: Ukraine is standing alone, caught in the crossfire of superpowers whose interests dictate its future. Europe still has a chance to alter the course of history, but it must break free from its passive role as a bystander.

The question is whether Europe has the strength to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. Time is running out, and reality grows harsher by the day. The shadow of a new world order looms over the globe, and the nation or coalition that first dispels it will shape the fate of an entire generation.

For Ukraine, Trump’s geopolitical maneuvers could very well mark the beginning of the end. Bereft of meaningful support, the country risks losing not just its territorial integrity but its very independence.

And Europe? Weak, disoriented, and fragmented, it faces a critical moment of reckoning. Will it rise to the challenge and reclaim its role on the global stage, or will it retreat, accepting the backseat as history moves forward without it?

As the saying goes, hope dies last. But today, even hope seems like a faint and fleeting dream.

Baku Network

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