IEA lowers forecast on global refinery output in 2023

Economy Materials 19 January 2023 16:27 (UTC +04:00)
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 19. Global refinery throughputs in 2023 are forecast to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) (2.1 mb/d in 2022), Trend reports via the latest oil market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA has lowered its forecast for world refinery output for this year by 0.1 mb/d, compared to the previous assessment.

"Global refinery activity was steady in December as US runs plunged 910,000 b/d due to weather-related outages, but higher runs in Europe and Asia offset the fall," the report said.

According to the outlook, US refineries have little room for further expansion in 2023, but new refineries in Africa and the Middle East, as well as in China, are expected to be used to meet rising demand for petroleum products, more than offset the projected decline in Russia.

"While our headline oil demand (all liquids, including biofuels) hits an all-time high this year, the call on refineries is forecast below 2017 levels as the growth in petrochemical feedstocks and biofuels over time has had a considerable impact on refiners’ market share, which has fallen from 86 percent in 2017 to 83 percent in 2023," the report noted.

As the IEA forecasts, "the expected growth in refined product demand this year, at 1.3 mb/d, should be comfortably covered by the cumulative 2.2 mb/d additions between 4Q22 and 4Q23".

"Thus, the challenge in meeting refined product demand in 2023 seems less daunting than in 2022, but remains dependent upon adequate crude supply," the report concluded.