BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 15. World oil supply in 2023 is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"Global oil supply leapt 830,000 b/d in February as the US and Canada rebounded strongly from winter storms and other outages. A combined increase of 700,000 b/d from North America helped push global production to 101.5 mb/d in February and, based on our current forecast, it should hover around that level through June. While that’s more than enough to match demand in the first half of the year, it would come nowhere close in the second half of 2023 when seasonal trends and China’s recovering fuel use are expected to boost demand to record levels above 103 mb/d," the report said.
In February, the total volume of oil supplies from OPEC+ countries rose by 180,000 b/d, while producers outside the block (non-OPEC+) showed an increase of 650,000 b/d, mostly dominated by the US and Canada.
"Russia, despite sanctions, led the OPEC+ increase as it continued to effectively re-route crude oil and products to Asia, Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere. This month, however, Moscow plans to turn down the taps by 500 kb/d purportedly preferring not to sell to countries that comply with G7 price caps," the IEA noted.
According to the report, the US and Brazil are expected to be the main drivers of the growth.
"That’s sharply lower than the huge expansion in 2022 of 4.6 mb/d, fueled by OPEC+ as it unwound its record 2020 supply cut. An overall non-OPEC+ increase of 1.8 mb/d will be moderated by an OPEC+ decline of 250,000 b/d with some Russian volumes shut in by sanctions," the report said.
At the same time, the IEA expects an overall output from OPEC+ (excluding Russia) to increase by 490,000 b/d, in case Libya's production stabilizes, and Nigeria sustains higher rates.