BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The Middle East is projected to take center stage as the primary source of global supply growth throughout 2050, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts, based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the region's share of the worldwide natural gas production increases from 15 percent in 2022 to 25 percent by 2050.
Meanwhile, in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), Middle East production remains robust, standing as the sole region to produce more gas in 2050 than it did in 2022.
According to the IEA, the decline rate in other regions depends on factors like the project pipeline in the near term, the ability of major producers to find export opportunities in a shrinking natural gas trade landscape, and the long-term development costs.
Among exporting regions, the US experiences substantial supply growth until 2030 in the STEPS scenario, with a 90 bcm increase in shale and tight gas production. However, as the agency noted, in the longer term, US production decreases, contributing to an overall production decline in North America of nearly 400 bcm between 2030 and 2050, primarily due to declining domestic demand. The absence of Russian gas supply to Europe and stagnant demand results in a 300 bcm decrease in Eurasian production by 2050.
In general, Russia-Ukraine war has spurred major gas producers to introduce new supplies to the market. In 2022, investment in upstream activities outside of Russia surged by over 15 percent, with approximately half of the planned new supply associated with export ventures.
Meanwhile, in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), global gas production declines significantly in all regions, to the extent that some projects may have to shut down before reaching the end of their technical lifespans. However, as the IEA noted, the growing use of gas for hydrogen production mitigates the decline after 2040 in regions where hydrogen is exported, notably in the Middle East and Australia.