BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 13. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported a decrease in global oil inventories by an estimated 0.3 mb/d in 1H24, Trend reports.
As such, the agency now projects an average decline of 0.6 mb/d in inventories from 3Q24 through 1Q25.
The phaseout of voluntary OPEC+ supply cuts is set to begin in 4Q24. Combined with ongoing supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries, the EIA expects global oil supply growth to surpass global oil demand growth. This shift is anticipated to bring the market back to moderate inventory builds for most of 2025.
The EIA forecasts that global oil inventories will start increasing at an average rate of 0.4 mb/d in 2Q25 and will continue to rise by 0.6 mb/d in 2H2025.
Consequently, oil prices are expected to rise to an average of $87/b in 4Q24 and $88/b in 1Q25. However, as global oil inventories grow during most of 2025, the Brent crude oil price is projected to gradually decrease to an average of $83/b by 4Q25.