Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?

Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?

Vagif Sharifov - Trend , director

Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15 years. The media actively comments on the news onhe forthcoming visit of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the railway Kars (Turkey) - Gumri (Armenia).

Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.

Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the import, but now already only on one source - Iran. The recent rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is no other economically attractive route.

This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan - Turkey - proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the essence political step.

Opening roads - indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago.

According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged 34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of 7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the country,.

Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus, possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw material goes to the Port of Ceyhan.

And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of opening borders with Armenia.

The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Electricity generation of Iran’s Bandar Abbas TPP surges
Electricity generation of Iran’s Bandar Abbas TPP surges
Georgia’s coal imports from Kazakhstan triple
Georgia’s coal imports from Kazakhstan triple
S&P predicts gas production growth in Azerbaijan through 2025
S&P predicts gas production growth in Azerbaijan through 2025
Loading Bars
Latest
New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern cancels her wedding amid new Omicron restrictions
S.Korea says Iran to regain UN vote after delinquent dues paid with frozen funds
Electricity generation of Iran’s Bandar Abbas TPP surges
Uz-Kor Gas Chemical opens tender for purchase spare parts for analyzers and gas detectors
SCO to consider draft program proposed by Uzbekistan
Iran-Russia annual trade to increase to $10 b from $4 b
Kazakhstan confirms 14,012 new COVID-19 cases in 24 hr
French EU lawmaker Collard joins far-right presidential candidate Zemmour
Pfizer, Moderna boosters up to 90% effective against Omicron: CDC
Turkey’s Turkovac to be tested as booster for Pfizer-BioNTech jab
Guinea junta establishes council to lead transition to elections
Visit aims to rebuild trust with Lebanon: Kuwait foreign minister
UK records 76,807 new COVID cases, 297 deaths
EU Commissioner for Energy to visit Azerbaijan
Pfizer CEO sees annual COVID vaccine rather than frequent boosters
US Dept of State plans to begin evacuation of US embassy staff from Kiev on Jan 24
Blast hits western Afghan city of Herat, killing at least six
Georgia’s coal imports from Kazakhstan triple
Presidential administration of Georgia submits candidates for election commission to parliament
Remittances to Uzbekistan in 2021 totaled USD 8 bln
Iran seeks long-term, all-out ties with Turkey - Raeisi
Massive California wildfire triggers evacuations, closes highway
Italy's Berlusconi decides against running for president
Azerbaijan, Iran talk military cooperation
Azerbaijani chess player continues to lead in Tata Steel Masters tournament
Serviceman of Azerbaijan Army dies in non-combat conditions
Number of Turkish jobseekers in Uzbekistan revealed for 2021
UAE stops all private drone activities, light sports aircrafts
Airbus cancels $6bn contract with Qatar Airways
German conservatives elect right-winger Merz as new party leader
Non-hydro renewables overtake hydro for first time in Turkey
Record-breaking indicators in non-oil sector - what is secret to success of Azerbaijan's economic strategy?
Iran shares data on exports from Aras Free Trade Zone
Kazakhstan names damage caused to business as result of large-scale rallies
Georgia publishes COVID-19 data for January 22
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price dips
India now allows 6 people to register on one number for Covid vaccination
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Azerbaijan confirms 1,614 more COVID-19 cases, 610 recoveries
Azerbaijan changes rules for quarantine control of Covid-19
India's Karnataka approves design & launch of nano-satellite by govt school students at Rs 1.9 Cr
‘One Modi cannot change a country, need more icons like him’: Himanta Biswa Sarma
Seizing of illegally stored weapons from citizens continues in Kazakhstan - interior minister
Azerbaijani border serviceman commits suicide in military hospital
Iran unveils details of agricultural export
Kazakh Armed Forces performing tasks to ensure public order in regions with “red” level of terrorist threat
Tokyo hits record 10,000 COVID cases, Japan over 50,000 for first time
Number of COVID-19 infections in Russia surpasses 11 mln since pandemic began
Kazakhstan developing measures to reform Samruk-Kazyna Fund's activities
PMO records surge in load/unload operations at Iranian ports
S&P predicts gas production growth in Azerbaijan through 2025
Turkmen medical enterprise discloses production data
Azerbaijan to hold auction for Ferrum Kapital CJSC's bonds
Kazakh president talks need to continue work to reveal all circumstances of recent riots
Kazakh oil and gas company to purchase helium via tender
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 22
Oil price spikes likely in 2022 amid inventory tightness midyear
7 killed, 16 injured in massive fire in central Mumbai high-rise
Oil demand to be robust in coming years despite net-zero strategies
India reports 3,37,704 new Covid cases, 488 deaths in 24 hours
Number of COVID-19 infections in Russia surpasses 11 mln since pandemic began
OPEC+ focus to switch away from propping up prices
Iran shares data on buy/sell operations at its Mercantile Exchange
Most people feel I-T exemption limit could be raised from Rs 2.5 lakh: India's KPMG
Turkmenistan’s Balkandokma complex doubles cotton yarn sales
Uzbekistan reveals data on agricultural, forestry and fisheries production
Tax benefits to increase disposable income likely in India's Union Budget
Uzbekistan approves procedure for rational use of land resources
S&P discloses inflation forecast for Azerbaijan through 2025
S&P Global Ratings announces forecast for Azerbaijan's budget surplus
Magnitude 6.2 earthquake strikes Unalaska, Alaska
NIOC agrees with Russian companies to develop Iran's oil, gas fields
SOCAR dismisses information about purchasing bitumen plant in Armenia
Kazakh company eyes to import leather products from Uzbekistan
S&P comments on possible swap line between Central Banks of Azerbaijan and Turkey
Oil production in Azerbaijan to moderately rebound - S&P
Georgia discloses its main cement sources of import
Turkmenistan lays out plans for hydrogen energy development
US lawmakers seek litigation at WTO against India on wheat subsidy
Iran, Azerbaijan continue construction of Khudafarin and Giz Galasi hydro junctions (PHOTO)
Climate policy of Uzbekistan: Implementation of measures to prevent climate change and adaptation in most vulnerable sectors of economy
S&P Global Ratings approves Azerbaijan's credit rating at 'BB+/B'
UK Foreign Secretary to meet with Lavrov in Moscow in February
Netaji’s statue at India Gate to be 25 feet high: NMAG director
India to allow arms manufacturers to enhance production
Kazakhstan names Samruk-Kazyna's entreprises planned to be put up for IPOs
Iranian currency rates for January 22
Statistical center of Iran reveals figures of growing inflation
Azerbaijan reduces quarantine period for COVID-19 patients
Kazakh Gas Processing Plant opens tender on manufacturing of parts for pumping equipment
Azerbaijan's Kalbajar - most suitable for winter tourism among liberated areas, agency says
EAM Jaishankar dials envoys in US, Canada after 4 Indians freeze to death along US-Canada border
Balkan Shipbuilding Yard in Turkmenistan to build new ships
Uzbekistan shares domestic COVID-19 data for Jan.21
Azerbaijani oil prices decline
Azerbaijan talks probability of commercial oil & gas reserves at Aypara area in Caspian Sea
GM sets $6.5 bln for in Michigan electric vehicle plants -document
Georgia – Turkey trade turnover up
Subhas Chandra Bose's family members welcome PM's decision on Netaji's statue at India Gate
Kazakhstan talks business support measures related to tax legislation
All news