Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?

Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?

Vagif Sharifov - Trend , director

Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15 years. The media actively comments on the news onhe forthcoming visit of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the railway Kars (Turkey) - Gumri (Armenia).

Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.

Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the import, but now already only on one source - Iran. The recent rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is no other economically attractive route.

This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan - Turkey - proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the essence political step.

Opening roads - indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago.

According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged 34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of 7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the country,.

Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus, possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw material goes to the Port of Ceyhan.

And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of opening borders with Armenia.

The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]

National Bank of Georgia sells funds at foreign exchange auction to stabilize lari
National Bank of Georgia sells funds at foreign exchange auction to stabilize lari
EU allocates macro-financial assistance to Georgia to tackle COVID-19
EU allocates macro-financial assistance to Georgia to tackle COVID-19
Produce in Georgia agency selects business ideas for micro and small entrepreneurship grant program
Produce in Georgia agency selects business ideas for micro and small entrepreneurship grant program
Loading Bars
Latest
Kazinform and IRNA news agencies hold joint online conference
Iran to compensate for Ukraine plane crash according to int'l norms
Oil tanker hit by blast at Saudi terminal, Saudi Arabia confirms
National Bank of Georgia sells funds at foreign exchange auction to stabilize lari
First Turkish Trade House to open in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani president signs law renaming Tsakuri village in Khojavend district
Azerbaijani president signs law renaming Gushchubaba village of Khojaly district into Baharli village
Azerbaijan to monitor fields in Kalbajar - Head of National Geological Exploration Service (Exclusive)
EU allocates macro-financial assistance to Georgia to tackle COVID-19
Turkmen FM gives speech at 13th Central Asia-Korea Cooperation Forum
Turkmenistan advocates cooperation in resolving regional and global environmental problems
Azerbaijan confirms 1,229 more COVID-19 recoveries
Iranian Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale November 28
Austria provides Uzbekistan with railway equipment
U.S. weekly jobless claims increase again
Produce in Georgia agency selects business ideas for micro and small entrepreneurship grant program
Kazakhstan eyes to fully put up produced LPG on electronic trading platforms in 2021
Uzbekistan’s food production to grow by end of 2020
Fergana region becomes main textile producer in Uzbekistan
More countries allow import of Uzbek-grown products
Volume of lending in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan in annual circulation greatly increases
Lari depreciation among possible reasons for fuel price increase in Georgia
Azerbaijan prepares projects to restore road infrastructure in liberated territories
Production of Iran’s Sefid Dasht Steel Company increases
Kazakhstan's Kuryk port boosts cargo handling, launches direct link to Iran
Turkmenistan has sufficient reserves to mitigate effects of pandemic - IMF
Volume of cargo transportation of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic drops
Kazakhstan to localize production of German agricultural machinery's popular models
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to fall
Georgian-produced ski equipment to be exported to Europe
Kazakhstan decreases exports to Italy year-on-year
Volume of goods released from Iran’s customs checkpoints announced
Turkmengas opens tender for purchase of instrumentation
Investments in Iran’s Kerman Province increase
Azerbaijani refugees from Kalbajar visit Martyrs Alley (PHOTO)
FM talks on possible Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty to French Le Point
Azerbaijan shows new footage of Azerbaijani army units entering Kalbajar (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Armenia must answer for war crimes - Azerbaijani FM
Iran’s South Pars Gas Company opens tender to buy equipment
Uzbekistan eyes to maintain macroeconomic stability in 2021
Volume of loans issued by commercial banks down in Georgia
Cable TV operators ready for full deployment in liberated Azerbaijani territories
Activities of private sector in Iran can put end to economic problems - analyst
Georgia increases export of precious metal ores and concentrates
During Karabakh hostilities, Turkey responded to political pressure exerted on Azerbaijan - ambassador
Oil shrugs off U.S. inventory gain helped by vaccine hopes
Total volume of non-bank deposits in Georgian banking sector down
Return of Kalbajar region to Azerbaijan has not only important political but also economic significance - Georgian expert
Number of bank accounts registered in Nakhchivan over 10M2020 unveiled
Azerbaijan's gold company reveals profits
Two facilities in Iran’s oil sector to be put into operation
Baku residents hold rally celebrating Kalbajar's liberation (PHOTOS)
Georgia reveals data on persimmons and caraway seeds exports
Turkmenistan’s growth model relies on large-scale public investments - IMF
Four dead as migrant boat capsizes off Canary Islands, more missing
Kazakhstan’s joining UPOV could help improve lives, provide for economic dev't
SOCAR reveals volume of transshipment through Kulevi terminal
First VP Mehriban Aliyeva congratulates Azerbaijani people on liberation of Kalbajar (PHOTO)
Cargo handling at Kazakhstan's Aktau seaport decreases over 10M2020
Foreign trade turnover of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic increases
Iran reveals its COVID-19 data for November 25
Life insurance in Azerbaijan occupies about half of all insurance fees - association
SOCAR and LUKOIL eye expanding co-op
Baku Stock Exchange hosts auction for CBA's short-term notes
Concerns of some OSCE MG co-chairing countries don't matter - Erdogan
Kazakhstan boosts passenger cars manufacturing within 10M2020
Turkmen IT company to create first online platform of Union of Industrialists, Entrepreneurs
Azerbaijan to export medical masks to Russia and Germany
UNESCO to take part in protection of cultural, religious heritage in Karabakh
Iran says ready to return to Jan 20, 2017
Iran talks banking obstacles
Azerbaijan disclose data on investments in local renewable energy projects
Iran prevented release of German home appliances from customs
Kazakhstan’s oil producing company opens tender to buy spare equipment parts
Turkmen company provides domestic market with products made of polyethylene
Production of agricultural products increases in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic
Azerbaijani soldiers created conditions for Armenian population to leave village in Aghdam - president
Iran reveals data on new enterprises in free trade zones
Pashinyan, where did you sign the act of capitulation? - President Aliyev
When Pashinyan put forward seven conditions to us, I said: I have only one condition: get out of our land - President Aliyev
Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan reveals data on GDP
Amount of loans issued for agricultural machinery in Iran spikes
Those who want to accuse us of something should first of all look in mirror - President Aliyev
When we drove enemy out of Shusha, it destroyed water line feeding city - President Aliyev
Global LNG prices expected to strengthen in 2021
Armenians had made maps of “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”, where are those maps? - President Aliyev
Kazakhstan's 10M2020 import of Turkish leather products declines
Gold, silver prices in Azerbaijan down
All damage will be calculated with participation of int'l experts - President of Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $48 per barrel
Uzbek-Korean JV to buy accumulator batteries via tender
Preliminary instructions have already been given for restoration of railway to Nakhchivan - President Aliyev
We have destroyed Armenian fascism - President of Azerbaijan
We will restore Kalbajar, let no-one have any doubts about that - President Aliyev
Armenian “historians” and fraudsters Armenianized ancient Albanian churches - President of Azerbaijan
When I was in Aghdam, I could not find single safe building - President Aliyev
Uzbekistan discloses tasks for service sector dev’t
Iran considering extraterrestrial farming in Azerbaijan
Export of leather goods from Turkey to France down
Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Finance to provide Uzbek banks with funds for family entrepreneurship dev’t
All news