Forecast: Economy recession unlikely to be avoided in Kazakhstan

Business Materials 11 June 2020 13:09 (UTC +04:00)
Forecast: Economy recession unlikely to be avoided in Kazakhstan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jun. 11

By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:

Economy recession is unlikely to be avoided in Kazakhstan, Sofya Donets, Russia and CIS Economist at Renaissance Capital said, Trend reports.

Donets made the statement during an ‘The winds of change: What developments can we expect this summer?’ online press briefing hosted by Renaissance Capital.

Donets said that Kazakhstan remains one of top picks in the Renaissance Capital-covered region.

“It has a proven track record of surviving two previous crises without negative growth. Although this time around recession is unlikely to be avoided, and in case of a second wave we estimate GDP will lose 2 percent instead of 0.7 percent (as was our base-case scenario), we believe that as soon as the turbulence is over the country will return to growth,” she said.

Founded in 1995, Renaissance Capital is a leading independent investment bank, providing access to over 50 markets across the globe with operations in Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, North America, and the Middle East.

Earlier this month, Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov said that country’s GDP growth forecast approved by the ministry said that the economic growth will be -0.9 percent, which is almost a percent less than the initial forecast said.

The GDP forecast made by Ministry of National Economy in 2019 said that the economic growth will be 4.1 percent in 2020.

Physical volume of Kazakhstan’s GDP amounted to 14.3 trillion tenge ($33.8 billion based on current exchange rate) in 1Q2020, which is 2.7 percent more than during 1Q2019 (13.1 trillion tenge or $31.2 billion), preliminary data said.

Fifty-six percent of the total GDP value account for paid services, 36.7 percent account for goods manufacturing, and 7.3 percent account for net tax.


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