BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct. 6
By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:
Kazakhstan’s GDP will likely contract by 2.2 percent year-on-year in 2020 followed by a growth rebound to 5.1 percent in 2021, Trend reports citing the revised macroeconomic forecast of Renaissance Capital agency.
The agency’s forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth for 2020 corresponds to the previous forecast and is 0.3 percent more than the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of negative 2.5 percent.
“Kazakhstan turned out to be the most effective in bringing down the second wave, in our view, which supports our strong view on the country’s economic recovery. The effect of the re-imposed restrictions was mainly seen in services, while domestic demand was much more robust (with retail sales down by only 7.5 percent year-on-year in July compared to a 45 percent year-on-year drop in April). Amid the easing of quarantine in August, business activity resumed an upward trend with manufacturing PMI recovering to above-neutral 52.6 (from 49.9 in August and 48 in July), while services PMI in August jumped to 46 (from 32.4 in July),” the report said.
The physical volume of Kazakhstan’s GDP amounted to 28.3 trillion tenge ($66.6 billion based on the current exchange rate) in 1H2020, which is 1.8 percent less than during 1H2019.
Some 55.1 percent of the total GDP value account for paid services, 38.8 percent account for goods manufacturing, and 6.1 percent account for net tax.
The volume of goods manufacturing amounted to 11.07 trillion tenge ($26.1 billion) in 1H2020, which is 4.1 percent more than in 1H2019.
Net tax stood at 1.7 trillion tenge ($4.08 billion) of GDP, which is 5.1 percent less than in 1H2019.
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