Possible Attack against Iran to Significantly Affect Oil Prices: Western Experts
Azerbaijan, Baku, 20 June /corr. Trend A.Badalova, G.Ahmadova / During two days summit in Brussels, the European Union countries will discuss a new pack of sanctions against Iran in response of country's refusal to stop uranium enrichment activities. During joint press-conference with the U.S. President George Bush early this week, the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called on the EU countries to make more rigid sanctions with regards to Iran.
According to him, the sanctions should especially deal with the oil and gas sector of the country. However, the EU countries do not demonstrate a single opinion on this issue.
The international experts separate in opinions of possibility of imposing sanctions by the EU countries. Economic analyst of the British newspaper, The Independent, Shon O'Gradi, considers that the possibility that sanctions will be imposed is very real.
"However, it will take a while, maybe six months or a year - to gain agreement," O'Gradi reported to Trend on 20 June.
The EU is unwilling to do so, but there is a perception that Iran is being stubborn, analyst of the Independent said.
According to him, The sanctions would probably involve freezing the assets of Bank Melli, Iran's biggest bank, restrictions on oil and gas exports and more travel bans for regime officials.
According to Andrew Reed, expert of the U.S. Energy Security Analysis (ESAI), the sanctions are not likely to have a significant impact on Iran or its oil and gas sector.
"The most likely U.S. policy to punish Iran for its alleged nuclear weapons program is to convince allies to impose sanctions on Iran outside of the United Nations Security Council since permanent members of the Security Council Russia and China are not very supportive of such initiatives," Reed reported to Trend .
Carlo Stagnaro, Director of Energy & Environment of Bruno Leoni Institute of Italy, is not sure whether real action will follow the EU's words on possible Iranian sanctions.
Stagnaro reported to Trend on 20 June that however, it seems that this is the most wrong way
"The problem with Iran is that the country is, at the same time, crucial to keep a relative stability on oil markets, and incapable of behaving responsibly from a political point of view. Policies should be aimed at achieving a greater degree of mutual integration, and they should not have the effect of isolating Teheran. The international community should not push Iran away from the globalized world," Stagnaro said.
According to the western analysts, in case of possible U.S. attack against Iran, the world oil prices will significantly increase.
"Sanctions and tensions always push the oil price up dramatically. This will happen again, we may be looking at a $200 barrel temporarily," O'Gradi said.
"In the unlikely event of war then the price is anyone's guess! Say $250," he said. Sharp rise in oil prices will be linked with increase in demand for fuel necessary for the military equipment.
"It's hard to say how much oil prices might grow - depending on how long will the war last, whether oil activities will be actually impacted, and how will other Middle Eastern countries react. What is sure is that it will grow by a significant amount," Stagnaro said.
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