Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 6 / Trend A.Badalova /
World oil demand growth will be moderate in the first half 2012 - below 1 million barrels per day (mln. bpd), before rising to 1.6 mln bpd in the second half of the year, the analysts of the large U.S. bank JP Morgan believes.
According to JP Morgan's monthly oil market report, demand will continue to be concentrated in the emerging markets, with the exception of Japan.
Analysts predict world oil demand to increase to 90.3 mln bpd in 2012 and to 91.7 mln bpd in 2013 compared to 89 mln bpd in 2011.
According to the forecasts, oil demand in the OECD countries will amount to 45.7 mln bpd in 2012 and 45.6 mln bpd in 2013. Oil demand in non-OECD countries will be at 44.6 mln bpd in 2012 and 46.1 mln bpd in 2013.
"Looking to oil demand in 2012 and 2013, our forecast is predominantly driven by the underlying performance of the global economy and expectations on oil prices, JP Morgan analysts said. Oil prices are projected to trend upwards throughout 2012 to 2013, acting to restrain demand growth, and further encourage supply as the global economy recovers."
According to the forecasts, oil demand in Asia will be 29.5 million bpd in 2012 and 30.3 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 10 million bpd in 2012 and 10.5 million barrels per day in 2013.
Oil supplies by OPEC
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 0.5 to 30.3 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.8 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will decrease oil supplies by 0.1 million to 30.2 million bpd in 2013.
According to the analysts' estimates, January OPEC crude production stabilized at 30.9 mbd, close to the three-year high reached in December.
With regard to the possible effects of Iranian sanctions, analysts assume that ahead of the July 1 EU embargo, European buyers increasingly defect to alternative suppliers within OPEC. US sanctions are also likely to be enforced in the second half of 2012, pending a decision by the US government that the market can accommodate them, which will further tighten the embargo against Iran.
Oil supply by non-OPEC countries
According to the JP Morgan's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.7 million barrels to 51.4 million bpd in 2012 and by 0.7 million bpd to 52.1 million bpd in 2013.
A more substantial increase of 0.5 mbd is made to 2013 growth, which is centred on North America, analysts said.
According to the analysts' forecasts, oil production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will amount to 13.7 mln bpd in 2012 and to 13.8 mln bpd in 2013.
Middle East countries' production will decrease to 1.5 mln bpd in 2012 and to 1.6 mln bpd 2013 compared to 1.7 mln bpd in 2011.