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JP Morgan revises up forecasts on global oil demand growth in 2012

Oil&Gas Materials 14 September 2012 16:43 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 14 / Trend A.Badalova /

Global oil demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 90 million bpd in 2012 compared to 88.9 million bpd in 2011, the analysts of the large U.S. bank JP Morgan predict.

Analysts raised their 2012 global oil demand growth outlook by 180,000 bpd to 750,000 bpd, while lowering 2013 growth to 1.14 million bpd.

Acording to analysts' monthly oil market report, in the second quarter of 2012 global oil demand will increase by by 900,000 bpd, before picking up to 1.26 million bpd growth in the first quarter of 2013.

J.P. Morgan economists expect that end-2012 and early-2013 will see the weakest yoy global economic growth since the global financial crisis.

According to the analysts' forecasts, oil demand in the countries of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will amount to 45.5 million bpd, in non-OECD countries - to 44.2 million bpd. Analysts predict oil demand in Europe at 14.7 million bpd in 2012.

Analysts expect world oil demand to increase by 1 million bpd to 91 million bpd in 2013.

According to the forecasts, in 2013, oil demand in the OECD countries will amount to 45.3 mln bpd, non-OECD countries - 45.5 mln bpd.

According to the forecasts, oil demand in Asia will be 29.2 million bpd in 2012 and 29.9 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 9.8 million bpd in 2012 and 10.2 million barrels per day in 2013.

Oil demand in Europe will slightly decrease to 14.6 million bpd in 2013.

Oil supplies by OPEC

JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 1.6 to 31.4 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.8 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will decrease oil supplies by 0.7 million to 30.7 million bpd in 2013.

"2013 OPEC volumes are lifted by 0.3 million bpd this month, balancing with the now lower non-OPEC supply estimate for next year, and the assumption that higher prices will likely sustain higher OPEC production. Nevertheless, the growth in non-OPEC supply should progressively," analysts' report said.

According to the analysts' estimates, OPEC production increased by 0.26 million bpd to 37.15 million bpd in August compared to 35.45 million bpd in the same month of last year.

Saudi Arabia's oil production, according to the esimates, remained last month stable at 10 million bpd. Iranian oil production amounted to 2.8 million bpd in August compared to 2.7 million bpd in July.

Oil supply by non-OPEC countries

According to the JP Morgan's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.2 million barrels to 50.7 million bpd in 2012 and by 1.1 million bpd to 51.8 million bpd in 2013.

According to the analysts' forecasts, oil production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will amount to 13.6 million bpd in 2012 and to 13.7 million bpd 2013.

Middle East countries' production will amount to 1.4 million bpd in 2012 and to 1.6 mln bpd 2013.

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