BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.9
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
OPEC crude oil production is expected to average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The increase reflects OPEC’s announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. At the December 3 meeting, OPEC and OPEC+ participants decided to limit oil production increases planned for January 2021. OPEC+ announced it will increase its production target by 0.5 million b/d in January 2021. The group had initially planned to increase its target by 2.0 million b/d. The group will also assess the state of global oil markets and petroleum demand monthly, adjusting targets based on market conditions.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration assumes the OPEC+ group will be highly compliant with this agreement in early 2021.
EIA now forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 25.7 million b/d in the first quarter of 2021, which is 1.7 million b/d lower than forecast in the November STEO and reflects the announced changes to OPEC+ targets and more effective assumed compliance with targets.
EIA estimates that the world consumed 95.6 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in November, which is down 6.3 million b/d from November 2019 but up from the third quarter 2020 average of 93.5 million b/d. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.4 million b/d for all of 2020, which is down by 8.8 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 5.8 million b/d in 2021.
EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production was 11.2 million b/d in November, which is up from 10.9 million b/d in September (the most recent month for which historical data are available). The increase mostly reflects greater production in the U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico after hurricane-related disruptions. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will decline to less than 11.0 million b/d in March 2021 mostly because of falling production in the Lower 48 states, where EIA expects declining production rates at existing wells will outpace production from newly drilled wells in the coming months. EIA expects crude oil production in the Lower 48 states will increase from 8.7 million b/d in February 2021 to 9.1 million b/d in December 2021, as drilling increases in response to rising oil prices. This increase contributes to total U.S. crude oil production reaching 11.4 million b/d in December 2021. On an annual average basis, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to fall from 12.2 million b/d in 2019 to 11.3 million b/d in 2020 and 11.1 million b/d in 2021.
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