BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 11
By Klavdiya Romakayeva - Trend:
The main inflation risks in Uzbekistan in the coming months are associated with short-term trends in food markets, as well as competition conditions and the conjuncture of world food markets, Trend reports with reference to the Central bank of Uzbekistan (CBU).
“In this regard, it will be important to ensure the necessary supply of goods in the domestic market. At the same time, there is a possibility of further reduction of prices for essential consumer goods by easing tariff and non-tariff restrictions on them,” the message says.
Certain pressure on the rise in prices in certain industries may be exerted by the increase in costs associated with the temporary halt of production processes due to interruptions in the supply of energy to producers.
In addition, there is acceleration in the rate of credit burden in the economy (the ratio of loans in the economy to GDP). By the end of the year, this indicator is expected to grow to 48-50 percent of GDP.
At the end of 2017, this indicator was in the range of 35-37 percent of GDP.
According to the CBU, the annual inflation rate by the end of 2020 is expected to be in the range of 11-11.5 percent. According to the baseline forecast, its level in 2021 will decrease to 9-10 percent.
“The Central Bank will continue to carefully study the nature of inflation factors and risks under the influence of external and internal conditions and will take appropriate decisions on the base rate based on the dynamics of the inflation forecast,” CBU said.
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