BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan. 24
Trend:
Consumer demand has maintained a positive tendency in Kazakhstan, as evidenced by the dynamics of retail trade turnover and consumer imports, Trend reports referring to the country’s National Bank.
According to the bank, from January through November 2021, retail turnover maintained the positive trend, amounting to 6.5 percent.
In 2021, a significant positive contribution to the retail turnover accounted for non-food products. Moreover, since the middle of the year, a recovery in the turnover of food products was noted.
The realization of pent-up demand and the dynamic growth of trade turnover were accompanied by double-digit growth in consumer imports (by 21.8 percent) in the first 11 months of last year.
Household consumption in 2021 was supported by the realization of pent-up demand and an increase in real incomes of the population (by 3.1 percent in 11M2021).
The further dynamics of demand was slightly adjusted due to the state of emergency in the country, as well as the ongoing increase in cases of infection with the Omicron strain of COVID-19.
A significant growth in the money supply as a result of the implementation of state programs to support the economy leads to pro-inflationary pressure in the economy and negatively impacts the stability of the foreign exchange market.
The implementation of these programs accelerated the recovery of the economy to the pre-pandemic level, but at the same time led to an expansion of the monetary base by 1.6 times to 11 trillion tenge ($25 billion) from the early 2020.
The money supply over the same period rose by 41.2 percent to 30 .1 trillion tenge ($69 billion). To reduce the impact of this factor on inflation, the National Bank has already begun withdrawing from state programs to support the economy, completing financing of five of them (Program of concessional lending to businesses, Employment Roadmap, Nurly Zher (State Program for Housing and Communal Development), Program of concessional car loans and the mortgage program "Baspana hit") in 2021.
In 2022, it’s planned to complete the financing of the Economy of Simple Things program and the 7-20-25 mortgage program.