BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 25. In the baseline scenario, inflation in Kazakhstan is expected to continue to slow down, a source at the National Bank of Kazakhstan told Trend.
"In August 2023, annual inflation in Kazakhstan was 13.1 percent. Inflation reached its peak value in February of this year – 21.3 percent. By the way, this is the maximum growth in more than 20 years (inflation was higher in April 1997). The slowdown in inflation occurs in the context of the exhaustion of the high base effect of 2022, lower world food prices, weakening global inflationary pressure, as well as lower import prices against the backdrop of a strengthening tenge exchange rate," the National Bank said.
As the source noted, main contribution to inflation continues to be the rise in prices of food products. However, this contribution is decreasing along with the increasing contribution of non-food goods and services.
"Food inflation slowed to 12.4 percent in annual terms amid a slowdown in price growth for bakery products and cereals, meat and dairy products. This is facilitated by a decrease in producer prices for food products, as well as a decrease in producer prices in agriculture from May through July of this year. In August, prices for fruits and vegetables, sugar, vegetable oils, poultry, flour and certain types of cereals decreased," the National Bank said.
As the National Bank noted, the rise in prices for non-food products slowed to 13.5 percent. "There is a slowdown in price growth for clothing and footwear, personal goods, detergents and cleaning products. The total contribution of rising prices for these product groups to inflation is gradually decreasing. Services inflation accelerated to 13.9 percent," the source said.
According to the National Bank's updated forecasts, in the baseline scenario, inflation is expected to continue to slow down. In the medium term, the slowdown in inflation may be facilitated by the current restrictive nature of monetary conditions, which will lead to a gradual decline in inflation expectations and inflation.
Inflation in Kazakhstan in July 2023 slowed down over the year and amounted to 14 percent (in June 2023 - 14.6 percent), over the month - 0.6 percent (previous month - 0.5 percent). Prices for food products over the year increased by 13.5 percent (in June 2023 - 14.6 percent), for non-food products - by 15 percent (in June 2023 - 15.8 percent), for paid services - by 13. 6 percent (in June 2023 – 13.3 percent).