ASTANA, Kazakhstan, April 11. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has published forecasts for the current account deficit in Kazakhstan for 2024 and 2025, Trend reports.
According to the forecast, the current account deficit is expected to narrow over the forecast period.
According to bank analysts, after a marginal export decline in
2024 as lower commodity prices largely offset higher production,
the 2025 increase in oil output is expected to raise merchandise
exports by 6.4 percent, while higher domestic demand will boost
imports by 2.3 percent in 2024 and 5.6 percent in 2025.
The service shortfall will eventually decrease as transit revenue
increases. As long as commodity investors repatriate windfall
profits, the primary income shortfall will persist.
However, outbound transfers are predicted to fall in 2024 and beyond, bringing the secondary income shortfall to an end in 2025. Gross international reserves are expected to reach $37 billion in 2024, covering 6 months of imports, and $38.2 billion in 2025, covering 5.8 months of imports, assuming no intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Furthermore, ADB expects the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) assets to reach $62 billion in 2024 and $65 billion in 2025 as transfers fall short of inflows and revenues.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's current account deficit was $8.7 billion at the end of 2023 (compared to a $7.1 billion surplus in 2022). The trade balance surplus amounted to $20.2 billion; the decrease in the surplus was due to an increase in imports of goods against the backdrop of a decrease in exports.
Exports of goods decreased by 6.7 percent and amounted to $79.9 billion. Imports of goods increased by 17.9 percent and amounted to $59.7 billion in the country.