...

Review of monetary market in Azerbaijan (January-November 2010)

Analysis Materials 8 January 2011 11:08

Since Nov. 1, preventive measures came into force in Azerbaijan, under which the Central Bank raised interest rates by one percent to three percent. Raising interest rates leads to a corresponding increase in interest on loans provided by banks and interest on deposits with these banks. Interest rate is usually increased to combat inflation, but decreased in order to stimulate economic growth.

"Taking into account the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and forecasts for the future, the board of the CBA has decided to increase the interest rate to three percent from Nov. 1," the CBA stated. At the same time, compulsory reservation on foreign liabilities of banks was set at 0.5 percent to regulate the external monetary factors of money supply growth.

Currency market and manat rate

In November, CBA continued to strengthen the dollar in relevant to the local currency. Only one day - Nov. 5, defined by the Central Bank, the official rate of dollar to the manat dropped, reached historic minimum - 0.7997 AZN/USD, then it again rose by 0.05 percent to 0.8001 AZN / USD.

In general, in November 2010, the official exchange rate of national currency in relevant to the U.S. dollar rose by 2 points. Dollar exchange rate in the country during the month fell from 0.8005 manat per U.S. dollar to 0.8003 manat per U.S. dollar. The maximum rate was fixed at the beginning of the month at 0.8005 manat per dollar and the minimum - Nov. 5 (0.7997). Fluctuations between the maximum and minimum value was 8 points.

In November, the euro rate in Azerbaijan also lost its value in the monetary market. During the month, the currency fell by 711 points (from 1.1195 to 1.0484 manat per euro). Monthly minimum rate - 1.0484 EUR/AZN was recorded on Nov. 30, the maximum monthly rate - 1.1354 EUR/AZN was recorded on Nov. 5, when the U.S. dollar went down to historic minimum. Fluctuations between the maximum and minimum value was 870 points.

On results of trades in currency section on tool USD/AZN_TOD Baku Interbank Currency Exchange (Baki Banklararasi Valyuta Birjasi - BBVB) defined five banks - leading operators of exchange market of hard currency in November 2010.

The International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) has headed five bank-leaders of exchange currency market in accordance with shares of transactions concluded by him. ASB, Yapi Kredi Bank Azerbaijan, Unibank and PASHA Bank also included in the number of the leading dealers of organized currency market. In accordance with it below is the list of banks - the leading operators of exchange market of hard currency in November

Banks

Of total (%)

International Bank of Azerbaijan

36.28%

ASB

18.38%

Yapi Kredi Bank Azerbaijan

5.88%

Unibank

3.46%

PASHA Bank

3.09%

*The figures do not include transactions of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan.

In total 16 banks have taken part in the trades of currency section of the BBVB in November 2010. In accounting month in "Bourse E-System of Trades" (BEST) 38 trading sessions are conducted and 67 transactions are registered.

The total volume of trades of currency section in accounting month on USD/AZN has made 140,792 million manats or $176,140 millions. The total trading volume in the currency section rose by 93.976 million manat, or three-fold.

The average daily turnover in "Bourse E-System of Trades" on USD/AZN reached approximately $ 4.635 millions, then that the average volume of each transaction has made $2,629 millions.

The exchange rate of national currency on tool USD/AZN_TOD in accounting month has consolidated on 0.04 percent from 0.7994 to 0.7991for $1. Thus the US dollar average rate in consideration to manat has made in November 0.7993 manat for $1, against 0.8033 manat following the October results of current year.

Monetary market

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) noted the increase in money supply (M2) (cash in circulation (outside banks) and remainders in the domestic currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial (excluding credit) organizations and phyiscal entities) by 1.4 percent in November and 33 percent compared to November 2009. С начала года ее объем увеличился на 20,2 процента.

So, as of late November, the rate of M2 was 7.417.7 million manat compared to 7.314.5 million manat as of late October, 5.575.6 million manat as of Dec.1, 2009 and 6.169.2 million as of January 1, 2010.

The amount of cash money supply (M0) in late November hit 4.994.3 million manat compared to 4.942.6 million manat as of late October, 3.805.7 million manat as of Dec.1, 2009 and 4.174.8 million manat as of Jan. 1, 2010.

As of late November, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 9.620.8 million manat compared to 9.619.9 million manat in late October and 7.904.9 million manat as of Dec.1, 2009.

The transaction money (M1) amounted to 5.964  million manat as of November compared to 5.999.9 million manat as of late October, 4.706.6 million manat as of Dec.1, 2009 and 8.469.2 million manat as of Jan. 1, 2010.

Parameters of monetary market, in mln manat

Amount, November 2010

Money mass in extensive understating (М3)

9620.8

Money mass on manat (М2)

7417.7

Cash in manat (М0)

4994.3

Non-cash in manat

2423.4

As of Dec. 1, 2010 the amount of reserve money in Azerbaijan amounted to 5.6229 billion manat. In November, the figure fell by 0.6 percent, but since the beginning of the year grew by 14.5 percent, but during the year - 29 percent.

Credit market

Azerbaijani banks increased lending to the economy in November by 0.3 percent compared to November 2009 - by 12.7 percent, since the beginning of the year - by 8.1 percent.

So, according to the CBA, as of Dec. 1, the banks have issued 9091.7 million manat, including 5770.2 million manat in national currency and 3321.6 million manat in hard currency.

In November the share of loans in national currency amounted to 63.5 percent, in foreign currency - 36.5 percent.

Of the total portfolio, loans worth 458.1 million manat were overdue compared to 454 million manat as of Oct. 1, about 272.9 million manat as of Dec. 1, 2009 and 303.5 million manat as of Jan. 1, 2010. Statistics of overdue loans does not include similar loans of non-bank credit institution Aqrarkredit.

As of the end of November, the short-term loans amounted to 2546 million manat compared to 2516.9 million manat as of the end of October, 2296.8 million manat as of Dec. 1 last year and 2359.9 million manat as of Jan. 1, 2010. In November the amount of short-term credit in the economy increased by 1.1 percent, while compared to November 2009 - by 7.9 percent.

Short-term loans in manat totaled 1494 million manat, long-term - 4276.2 billion manat. Of the total loans in foreign currency, 1052 million manat were short-term, 2269.6 million manat - long-term.

Long-term loans amounted to 6545.8 million manat compared to 6548.3 million manat as of Nov. 1, 5767.8 million manat - Dec. 1, 2009 and 6047.5 as of the beginning of the year. In November the amount of long-term loans decreased by 0.03 percent, while compared to November 2009 - 8.2 percent.

As of late November, the only state bank of the country (the International Bank of Azerbaijan) granted loans totaling 3911.3 million manat with a specific weight of 43 percent (decreased by 0.7 percent in November), and private banks - 4988.9 million manat with a specific weight of 54.9 percent (increased by 1.1 percent). The remaining 2.1 percent fall on the share of non-bank credit organizations, which issued loans worth 191.6 million manat.

As of Dec.1, the average rate on bank lending to the economy of Azerbaijan in national currency amounted to 13.66 percent compared to 14.06 percent as of Nov. 1, 16.71 percent as of Dec. 1, 2009.

Average interest rate on bank lending in hard currency amounted to 16.43 percent compared to 16.34 percent and 16.71 percent, respectively.

As of early December, the average rate on bank lending to legal entities in national currency hit 11.25 percent compared to 11.73 percent as of Nov 1, 12.28 percent as of Dec. 1, 2009. The average rate on bank credits to corporate clients in hard currency was 13.28 percent compared to 13.22 percent as of Nov. 1, 14.01 percent as of Dec. 1, 2009.

In this period, the average rate on bank lending to individuals in national currency amounted to 19.28 percent compared to 19.48 percent as of Nov. 1 and 20.42 percent as of Dec.1, 2009. Average interest rate on bank credit to the individual clients in hard currency was 22.84 percent compared to 22.92 percent and 23.24 percent respectively.

Banking sector

Depositary base of Azerbaijani banks reduced by 2.5 percent in November and increased by 10.3 percent as of November 2009, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) said.

Based on the CBA data, as of late November, total sum of bank deposits and deposits by legal and physical entities hit 4751 million manat compared to 4874,4 million manat as of late October and 4308,2 million manat as of early December 2009. About 2217,9 million manat fell to manat and 2533,1 million manat to currency.

The deposits of physical entities reduced by 0.7 percent in November, the deposits of legal entities by 5.2 percent.

The deposits by individual clients increased by 27.4 percent as of November 2009. The deposits by corporate clients reduced by 8.5 percent.

The deposits of legal entities totaled 1882,6 million manat by late November compared to 1986,9 million manat by late October and 2056,5 million manat by Dec. 1, 2009.

As of Dec.1, the average rate on deposits in manat amounted to 11.09 percent compared to 10.98 percent as of Nov.1, 11.66 percent as of Dec.1, 2009, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) said.

Average rate on deposits in foreign currencies amounted to 10.63 percent compared to 10.50 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively.

As of Dec.1, the average rate on deposits of individuals in manat was 12.05 percent compared to 11.96 percent as of Nov.1, 12.94 percent as of early December 2009. Average rate on deposits from individual customers in foreign currencies amounted to 12.33 percent compared to 12.16 percent and 12.41 percent, respectively.

As of early December, the average rate on deposits of legal entities in manat was 6.40 percent compared to 6.50 percent as of Nov.1, 6.75 percent as of Dec.1, 2009. Average rate on deposits from corporate clients in foreign currency amounted to 5.43 percent compared to 5.72 percent and 5.86 percent respectively.

The number of profitable banks in Azerbaijan amounted to 31 in November. The figure decreased by six bank compared to November 2009 and remained unchanged compared to the pervious month, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) reported.

Total profit in the banking sector declined by almost 53.4percent compared to November 2009, and increased by 17.6 percent compared to the previous month to 109.05 million manat.

The number of unprofitable banks remained unchanged compared to October, and increased by 7 units compared to November 2009. As a result, a loss of 16 banks amounted to 51.85 million manat, which is 25.8 percent more than the October index and almost 3.1 times higher than during the same period in 2009.

Bank Financial Results (After Tax) in million manat:

Periods

The number of banks operating profitably

The total profit of the banking system (on profitable banks)

The number of banks operating in loss

The total loss of the banking system (on unprofitable banks)

Total profit (+) or loss (-) obtained by banks

01-12-2008

36

214.45

9

14.96

120.58

01-12-2009

37

250.91

9

16.72

234.19

01-12-2010

31

160.9

16

51.85

109.05

The capitalization of the Azerbaijani banking sector reached 2.175.07 million manat in November, or 1.1 percent more than last month and 8.5 percent more than in early 2010, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) reported.

According to the CBA, the number of banks with capital exceeding 10 million manat reached 40 by late November. The figure decreased by one bank compared to October and two banks- November 2009. The weight of these banks in the total capital of the market fell from 97.8 to 97.4 percent

Five banks (with a specific weight of 2.2 percent) have capital ranging from 5 million to 10 million manat. Two banks (0.4 percent) have capital ranging from 3.5 million to 5 million manat.

Stock market

Turnover of corporate securities in Azerbaijan hit 1.7 billion manat in Januray-November 2010 which is by 2.17 times less the figure in the same period of 2009.

The overall corporate securities market increased by 33.1 percent and amounted to 388.025 million manat compared to the same period of 2009. The increase in transactions with corporate securities is observed due to the increased volume of transactions with bonds at 2.48 times, while the number of transactions grew by 1.9 times up to 197.

The government securities market decreased by 2.2 times, and hit 1,301.87 million manat. This was affected by a significant reduction in the repo transactions in 2.7 times, although the number of transactions declined (by 1.84 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively).

Comparative table on the results of trades of Corporate Securities at BSE

(January to November 2010):

Market segments

2010 (30.11.10)

2009 (30.11.09)

Percentage ratio

Volume of transactions,

manat

Number of transactions

Volume of transactions,

manat

Number of transactions

Corporate bonds- (placement)

83 642 674.97

97

47 072 593.09

63

177.69%

Corporate bonds - (secondary market)

151 035 038.57

100

47 522 746.90

43

317.82%

CBs Total

234 677 713.54

197

94 595 339.99

106

248.09%

Stocks - (placement)

146 701 490.96

1 808

156 315 419.40

1 287

93.85%

Stocks -

(secondary market)

6 645 862.19

1 859

40 524 640.63

2 769

16.40%

Stocks Total

153 347 353.15

3 667

196 840 060.03

4 056

77.90%

CS Market Tota

388 025 066.69

3 864

291 435 400.02

4 162

133.14%

Comparative table on the results of trades of Government Securities at BSE

(January to November 2010)

Market segments

2010 (30.11.10)

2009 (30.11.09)

Percentage ratio

Volume of transactions,

manat

Number of transactions

Volume of transactions,

manat

Number of transactions

GB - (AR MF) (placement)

307 036 851.04

133

467 146 169.03

248

65.73%

GB - (AR MF) (secondary market)

89 941 551,73

48

149 045 985.50

85

60.34%

GB Total

396 978 402.77

181

616 192 154.53

333

64.42%

Notes (AR CB) - (placement)

189 418 737.38

146

279 228 497.53

181

67.84%

Notes (AR CB) - (placement)

5 564 936.87

2

67 504 812.02

39

8.24%

Notes Total

194 983 674.25

148

346 733 309.55

220

56.23%

Repo operations

709 908 031.43

674

1 920 203 833.05

703

36.97%

GS Market Total

1 301 870 108.45

1 003

2 883 129 297.13

1 256

45.15%

The National Depository Center (NDC) at the Azerbaijani State Securities Committee registered 233  stock transactions for the sale of shares in the amount of 14.3 million manat at the contract price and in the amount of 13.89 million  manat- at face value in November, the NDC said.

The depository center registered 22 non-stock exchange transactions in the amount of 2,94  million manat at a nominal price and 17 transactions on the additional issue in the amount of 31.55 million manat at a nominal price. The volume of registered stock exchange transactions exceeded the non-stock ones by 4.7 times.

Securities in the amount of 3.3 billion manat are deposited in the NDC.

Date

Number of contracts

The number of registered stock exchange transactions

The volume of registered stock exchange transactions
(at par value of manat)

The number of registered non-stock exchange transactions

The volume of registered non-stock exchange transactions
(at par value of manat)

Number of transactions on an additional issue

The volume of tranactions on the additional issue (at par value of manat

01.02.2010

9

194

14 885 319

4

508 188

8

17 915 400 

01.03.2010

5

182

5 168 410

23

1 077 138

9

13 228 116

01.04.2010

6

275

10 868 410

21

2 856 659

844

19 173 000

01.05.2010

1

360

341 535

20

1 712 901

16

35 742 089

01.06.2010

3

389

15 217 470

5

3 656 538

25

41 107 846

01.07.2010

3

660

25 495 632

6

593 992

13

20 423 397

01.08.2010

3

462

23 230 142

26

2 807 153

10

29 796 924

01.09.2010

5

877

22 612 649

7

308 701

23

36 647 322

01.10.2010

4

388

9 578 953

7

911 100

12

14 680 752

01.11.2010

0

210

18 112 489

17

12 467 376

849

9 184 934

01.12.2010

4

233

13 893 775

22

2 936 964

17

31 550 654

Latest

Latest