Baku, Azerbaijan, March 16
By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:
Russia continues to keep Syrian President Assad in power and fight Assad’s opposition. Its continuous bombing of East Ghouta and persistent attempts to break down resistance of anti-regime rebels looks, frankly speaking, like tilting at windmills.
President Putin and Russia’s military, like no one else, must be well aware of the consequences of the Afghan campaign.
Assad is not even yesterday’s news but a thing of the past in new Syria. If Moscow wants to establish peace in this country and profitably exploit the situation for its state interests and reputation, it needs to immediately make sure the existing regime is gone, as it has become an image of universal evil on the Earth.
Don’t bother about the Syrian opposition. Most of those fighting against Assad’s rule will appreciate the decision and will likely be ready to lay down arms and sit down for negotiations.
Syria has been at war for seven years and there is no end to it. All opposing sides have been exhausted, but no one accepts a compromise. A strong push is needed here.
It’s well-known how a heavy fire on oil wells, which can not be extinguished by conventional means for a long time, is put out. It’s made by highly focused explosion.
If Kremlin makes (or “asks”) Assad to leave, it will have a similar effect. A terrible spiral of violence will likely be curbed and Assad’s opponents will stop. They will have to reflect on the new context of this bloody game.
Having done this, Russia could likely bring majority of Syrians and the international community on its board.
The US will likely seek to discuss possible prospects and cooperation with Russian leadership, and this is an important detail.
It is important to look at all this from beyond the formal logic. Assad has indeed become a source of hatred for millions of people. While, in the early months of the Syrian tragedy, he had some say in the course of events and was a contracting party, then he has become an “untouchable” due to the death of thousands of people. Everybody is well aware of that his leave is only a matter of time.
I think it is the best time for such decision. It might be preemptive and unexpected move, straight Putin’s original style.
They, in Moscow, probably have long thought of further plans on Syria, including the fate of Assad. Russia is the first to be interested in peace establishment in Syria, but the more it wishes so, the worse it gets.
My suggestion is sort of speculation. Nevertheless, there may be some merit in it.