BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 18. Georgia’s GDP growth in 2022 is predicted at 2-3 percent, while the national currency (Georgian lari) exchange rate - at 3.3-3.4 lari to USD, Trend reports via economic review from the Renaissance Capital investment bank.
According to the previous forecast, the Renaissance Capital expected Georgia’s GDP growth to reach 6 percent, while the Georgian lari exchange rate was expected at 3.05 Georgian lari/USD.
“Georgia could be tangibly affected by adverse regional developments and is clearly exposed to political risks. We, however, expect the country to maintain moderate growth, and we see no major risks for a financial stability and fiscal financing,” the bank said.
The Renaissance Capital remains with positive assessment of Georgia’s decent macroeconomic management, consistent reform effort and growing economic openness.
The bank noted that, amid the current crisis in the region due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Georgia could be tangibly affected by those factors.
“While Georgia maintains a neutral external political position, the key risk is a potential spike of tensions with Russia which could rise recessionary risks in the worst-case scenario. On the other hand, upsides could be related to either a more active trade with Russia amid sanctions on the later, or a further intensification of the economic relations with the EU (given that Georgia has applied for the EU membership), which will be conditional on political developments,” the Renaissance Capital said.
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