(dpa) - After suffering a number of setbacks in the first round of municipal elections, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) will look to limit the damage in Sunday's run-off vote.
With the Socialist mayor of Lyon and the UMP incumbent of Bordeaux having retained their posts in last Sunday's first round, the key races will take place in Paris, Marseille, Toulouse and Strasbourg.
The Socialist mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoe, is virtually certain to post a convincing victory on Sunday over his UMP challenger, Francoise de Pananfieu, and polls show that the Socialist challenger will beat the conservative incumbent mayor of Strasbourg, Fabienne Keller, on Sunday.
That makes the two large southern cities of Marseille and Toulouse critical in the national balance sheet: if the Socialists take both cities, they will control the four largest cities of France; a victory in Marseille and/or Toulouse will save some face for Sarkozy.
Polls show both races too close to call, with the centrist Modem party of former presidential candidate Francois Bayrou playing a crucial role in the outcomes.
In Toulouse, the Modem allied itself with the incumbent after being rebuffed by the Socialist challenger; in Marseille, Socialists and Modem formed an electoral alliance.
According to an internal party memorandum, made public Friday on the web site of the daily Le Figaro, UMP officials fear that they could lose control of 34 cities with populations larger than 30,000, to add to the eight that were won by Socialist challengers in the first round.
Such an outcome would represent a nationwide readjustment, since the Socialist had lost 41 mid-size and large cities in the 2001 municipal elections.
However, if both Marseille and Toulouse are lost, it would give the opposition control of eight of the country's 10 biggest municipalities and perhaps force Sarkozy to do what he has vowed not to, reshuffle his government less than a year after taking office.
Although the municipal elections are taking place more than four years before the next scheduled presidential elections, some politicians are already looking to their results for momentum.
That's the case of Bayrou, who made a surprisingly strong run last year to finish a close third behind Sarkozy and Socialist Segolene Royal.
Polls show that he will be defeated by the Socialists in the race for mayor of the southern city of Pau. However, candidates from his Modem party made strong showings in many large cities last Sunday, and look to have established the party as a strong political force.
In addition, the re-elected UMP mayor of Bordeaux, former prime minister Alain Juppe, was evidently thinking about 2012, and about a possible alliance, when he called on his party to support Bayrou in Pau, a call that was rejected.
Juppe's overwhelming victory last Sunday has thrust him back into the national limelight, and his criticism of Sarkozy immediately after that win may have been the first shot in a long-term struggle to challenge the president.
For the Socialists, the size of Delanoe's win in Paris and the outcomes of races in certain of its arrondissements, or city districts, may decide on how prominent a role he will play in the party's national politics.
A big win would set the stage for a potentially bitter struggle against the still popular Royal for the party's leadership.