By Claude Salhani-Trend:
Its time to start thinking seriously about the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh, this territory could lead to some very serious fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia - and by default involve Russia and the United States.
True, the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh has been percolating for more than two decades now, ever since Armenia occupied the territory at the breakup of the Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh and other adjoining regions have historically been part of Azerbaijan, though the population included large numbers of ethnic Armenians.
The three foreign powers - the United States, France and Russia - who form the Minsk Group -- under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, have been tasked to find a peaceful solution to this very explosive ticking time bomb in the southern Caucasus. So far they have failed. And given that the conflict has lasted nearly 25 years and seen from afar, the American, French and Russian peace negotiators may be fooled into thinking that they may well have another 25 years to go before they find a solution to the problem.
That would be a monumental mistake. Time in this land that time appears to have forgotten, is rapidly becoming a hot commodity.
Full-scale war between the two countries is not to be ruled out unless progress is reached on the peace talks front. There are hourly clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops entrenched on both sides of the contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops.
Daily press communiqués issued by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense speaks of up to 50 and more infractions of the ceasefire agreed to in 1994.
The situation has become so tense that the violations of the ceasefire are reported on an hourly basis. On Sunday, for example, there were at least 60 reported cases of Armenian attacks on Azerbaijani military positions. The danger signs are all too real.
As in nearly every conflict in modern history, they started with strong-worded communiqués. Those are in time trailed by gunfire exchange. Earlier this month, the Azerbaijani military intercepted an Armenian military helicopter that had violated Azeri airspace and was shot down. Last week the Azerbaijanis intercepted an Armenian spy drone and shot it down too.
Over the weekend six Armenian soldiers were killed in a skirmish along the contact line.
There are two very noticeable danger signs flashing red faster by the day, if not by the hour. The first comes from the rising level of rhetoric -- always a sure giveaway of what is to follow.
The second is manner in which Azerbaijan in arming and equipping its military leading one into thinking that eventually the leadership and the top military brass in the Defense Ministry will be tempted to use those newly acquired toys, particularly in light of the lack of progress on the negotiation front.
Moscow, while maintaining cordial relations with both sides, nevertheless remains Yerevan's sturdiest supporter in the region and in this conflict. In the event of a full-scale war in the Caucasus, how far would Moscow go in support of its Armenian ally? That remains to be seen.
Azerbaijan, once part of the Soviet Union, has since independence been carrying out a balanced foreign policy.
Would the US - still not entirely disassociated from two failed wars in the Middle East -- commit itself militarily over the land that time and the West seem to have forgotten, but a land that Azerbaijan still remembers vividly?
That too remains to be seen.
Claude Salhani is senior editor with Trend Agency and a political analyst specializing in the greater Middle East and politicized Islam.
You can follow Claude on Twitter @claudesalhani.