Trend commentator: Osh events threaten security in Central Asia

Trend commentator: Osh events threaten security in Central Asia

Trend commentator Polad Hamidov

The number of victims of clashes in southern Kyrgyzstan reached 179 people. During the riots about 1,866 civilians were injured, of whom 836 were hospitalized.

According to certain assumptions, these data are inaccurate and the actual number of victims of riots exceeds the official summary. Up to 100,000 refugees and internally displaced people could leave conflict-affected areas.

Classifying ethnic conflicts in the former Soviet Union Some, specialists on conflicts include all acts of communal violence (Osh, Fergana) in Central Asia in a separate category. The economic factor along with ethnic problems play an important role here.

Socio-economic situation in the Ferghana Valley is a serious problem both for Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which appeared during the Soviet period. It is stipulated by several circumstances, including the most important - the overcrowding and shortage of land and water for irrigation, as well as a surplus of labor force, mainly aged from 17-25.

However, land and water became a leitmotif of the mass riots in Osh in 1990, when riots, burning and killing of Uzbeks broke out. The informal organizations - both Kyrgyz and Uzbek operating in the Osh region aggravated the situation.

Events, taking place today in the Kyrgyz Osh, remind the conflict which occurred 20 years ago. But now the situation is aggravated by the fact that all this happens in a country which has experienced two revolutions for the last five years, with weak economy and unstable authority. After the last revolution, when Kurmanbek Bakiyev was overthrown, the interim government headed by Roza Otunbayeva has not managed to secure legitimacy yet.

Taking into account these circumstances, possible spreading of heated situation outside the region is not ruled out. For example, the information about casualties among ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan has stirred up the border areas of Uzbekistan in June 1990. It is difficult to say about the reaction of the Uzbek community to the events in Osh today.

Soviet army was deployed in the towns of the Kyrgyz Osh in riots in June 1990. It managed to bring the situation under control.

Now the CSTO can play this role. But it does not have the potential and experience. Everybody obeyed a "center" 20 years ago. The army with the assistance of numerous police system, as well as the KGB easily resolved the conflict. But now the consent of representatives of all member-countries of the Organization is required for the entry of CSTO peacekeeping forces. Moreover, the situation is being aggravated every day and the "young" CSTO peacekeeping forces' actions to resolve the conflict are unlikely to be effective.

The aggravating circumstance in this situation is the illegitimate authority in Kyrgyzstan. The consent of all members of the organization is required for CSTO peacekeepers to resolve the conflict. One must not forget that Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who also requested to enter the CSTO peacekeeping forces to prevent the coup in Kyrgyzstan, is in Belarus now. The attitude of this country to a temporary Kyrgyz government is not fully clear. For example, the General Prosecutor's Office in Belarus has refused from extraditing ex-president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The Kyrgyz interim government accuses him of escalating tension in the country. The official representative of the Belarusian prosecutor general's office refused from explaining the reasons of that decision. Taking it into account, is it logical for Belarus to help the Kyrgyz interim government?

The tragic events in the Osh region in summer 1990 and a wave of riots against the Meskhetian Turks in the Ferghana Valley, of course, were a lesson for the ruling elite-countries of Central Asia. They acquired the necessary experience to prevent such clashes. But the situation today is complicated by the fact that extremists and drug dealers operate actively in the region.

In particular, one can not ignore "seasonality" of these disturbances. That is, "the first war of Fergana" and "the first Osh events" occurred when the operation on destruction of opium poppy was conducted in this region. The second half of May and early June is the time of intensive cultivation of flowering. The red fields can be easily detected from a helicopter. Therefore, it is the most convenient time to conduct operations on its destruction.

Although the current events in Osh were not preceded by an operation to destroy poppy crop, one can not ignore the role of those involved in drug trafficking and money laundry, an escalation of tensions in the country.

Georgia reports 1,006 new cases of coronavirus on Jan. 26
Georgia reports 1,006 new cases of coronavirus on Jan. 26
Geostat reveals volume of inflation rate in Georgia
Geostat reveals volume of inflation rate in Georgia
Georgia’s economy to continue to shrink in first quarter of 2021 - ISET-PI
Georgia’s economy to continue to shrink in first quarter of 2021 - ISET-PI
Loading Bars
Latest
Chairman of Azerbaijan's Azercosmos dismissed
Azerbaijan appoints new minister of transport, communications and high technologies
Azerbaijani president signs decree to dismiss minister of transport, communications
Georgia reports 1,006 new cases of coronavirus on Jan. 26
Azerbaijan restricts import of poultry products from several countries
Iran boosts exports of fishery products
Kazakhstan introducing new technologies to develop energy sector
New well opened at gas condensate field in Uzbekistan’s Kashkadarya region
Uzbekneftegaz expands production capacity of Shurtan gas chemical complex
Turkmenistan developing electronic platform for textile industry
Number of killed soldiers given to Armenian side by Azerbaijan disclosed
Iran unveils data of exports and imports via Bushehr port
Turkish investments in Azerbaijan's Karabakh to favor opening new jobs - expert
Exports through Iran's Isfahan Province decreases
French MFA's Secretary of State visits Azerbaijan (PHOTO)
Geostat reveals volume of inflation rate in Georgia
Dostlug project is precedent for potential interconnections in Caspian Sea
Kazakhstan prepares 4-year national development plan
Turkmenistan preparing program for dev’t of digital economy for coming years
Prices for Azerbaijani oil revealed
Georgia’s economy to continue to shrink in first quarter of 2021 - ISET-PI
Uzbekistan, Japan talk about strengthening multifaceted partnership
SOCAR names measures to adapt to COVID-19 challenges
Azerbaijan shows footage from Karkhulu village of Jabrayil district (PHOTO/VIDEO)
UK jobless rate rises to highest since 2016
Kazakhstan boosts exports to Belgium despite COVID-related restrictions
Kazakhstan sees decrease in trade with EU countries amid COVID-19
Inflation rate increasing in Iran
Azerbaijani currency rates for Jan.26
Ukrainian company to repair gas generator engines at Uzbekneftegaz JSC
Azerbaijan exporting ecoproducts to Qatar
SOCAR talks on prospects for engagement in liberated lands
Saudi Arabia agrees on further steps to modernize national electric power system of Uzbekistan
Saudi Arabia eyes setting up investment companies and microfinance organizations in Uzbekistan
Iranian currency rates for January 26
Кazakh Electricity Grid Operating Company to buy spares via tender
Turkmenistan's Turkmenturba opens tender for purchase of chemical products
Kazakhstan’s Volkovgeology JSC exploring venture opens tender to buy accumulators
JP Morgan expects non-OPEC oil supply to grow in 2022
ITFC announces launching of 2nd phase of Aid for Trade Initiative for Arab States in June 2021 to Mitigate Effects of COVID-19 on Trade in Arab Region
Amount of fee transfers to Azerbaijan's 2020 state budget disclosed
Turkmen spinning mill sends most of its products for export
Iran shares data on steel sheet rates
Azerbaijan to create Karabakh development model - Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms
Uzbekistan reveals COVID-19 data for January 26
Oil shortage unlikely in medium-to-long term
Global oil demand to peak in around 2030
US to reach highest monthly total of wells franked after March 2020
Iran investigating case of seized tanker - Oil Minister
South Korea yet to pay its debt to Iran - Iran-South Korea Joint Chamber of Commerce
Azerbaijan preparing action plan for development of renewable energy sources in Karabakh
Oil drops as U.S. stimulus wrangles, rising COVID-19 cases hit sentiment
Iranian FM discusses impact of FATF related bills issues on economy
Weekly review of Georgian capital markets
Total volume of non-bank deposits in Georgian banking sector up
Chinese mainland reports 69 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases
China, New Zealand sign upgrading protocol of free trade deal
Italy sends warning letter to Pfizer over COVID vaccine delays
U.S. House delivers Trump impeachment article to Senate
Uzbekistan, India working on bilateral investment treaty
Brazil sees 627 COVID-19 deaths in a day
France registers 445 COVID-19 deaths over past 24 hours, hospitalizations up again
Protest clashes injure 8 in Lebanon's northern city of Tripoli
Kazakhstan improving forecast power sector showings for 2021
Italy says G20 to discuss extension of debt relief for poor countries
Merkel and Biden agree in phone call to strengthen transatlantic cooperation
U.S. Senate votes overwhelmingly to confirm Yellen as first female Treasury chief
Canada's COVID-19 cases surpass 750,000
Number of COVID-2019 cases across globe up by over 514,000 in past day
UN chief calls for developing global economy with universal respect for int'l law
Israel reports 8,664 new COVID-19 cases, 605,397 in total
Body of one person recovered from rubble of destroyed house in Azerbaijan's Khirdalan (PHOTO/VIDEO) (UPDATE)
At least 21 dead, 33 injured in southern Brazil bus accident
Georgia's economy focuses on higher value added sectors
Italy PM Conte to resign on Tuesday, seek fresh mandate
6.5M more doses from China add pace to Turkey's vaccination drive
Flydubai, Air Arabia to resume flights to Georgia
Iran's exports to EEC member states increase
Assistant to Azerbaijani president talks new architecture of regional security in interview to Atlantic Council (VIDEO)
India eyes to study Kyrgyz medicinal plants, create their catalog
Kazakhstan boosts petroleum oils export to EU countries
UK records another 22,195 coronavirus cases, 592 deaths
National Bank of Kazakhstan discloses base rate
Role of innovations in development of digital payments in Azerbaijan during pandemic
PACE welcomed trilateral statement putting end to Second Karabakh war - Secretary General of Council of Europe
Azerbaijani Cabinet of Ministers determines priorities for 2021 upon president’s instructions (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan Gymnastics Federation holds its General Assembly and Executive Committee meeting (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan discloses trade balance in 2021
Georgia reveals volume of exported tangerines
Main index of Tehran Stock exchange gains 1,343 points
Azerbaijan shows footage from Dovletyarli village of Fuzuli district (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Iran capable of reconstructing liberated areas in Azerbaijan's Karabakh - former ambassador
Azerbaijani SOCAR's Turkish affiliate discloses revenue from 2020 export operations
BakuBus LLC transferred to Azerbaijan Investment Holding
Azerbaijan releases info on its citizen killed by pirates off coast of Nigeria
Export of hazelnuts from Azerbaijan to Georgia down
Azerbaijani expert talks transport problem in post-pandemic period
Azerbaijan confirms 273 more COVID-19 recoveries
Azerbaijani, Iranian FMs discuss current regional situation
Iranian Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on Jan.26
All news