Azerbaijan, Baku, March 11 /Trend, V.Zhavoronkova/
No government could solve the set of problems that exist in Kyrgyzstan, the U.S. expert on Central Asia, Bruce Pannier said.
"In fairness, no government could solve all of Kyrgyzstan's problems, and that is something many in Kyrgyzstan understand," expert of Radio Liberty, Pannier, wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
Assumptions that the ruling coalition in Kyrgyzstan will soon collapse are more often sound in the country. It was formed by the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) in November last year. Its composition also includes Ata Meken and Republic parties.
Now the Republic is headed by the Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev: changing the form of government from presidential to parliamentary was a consequence of the overthrow of president Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April last year.
The coalition leader, MP from the Republic Faction Kanatbek Isayev said the rumors of a breakup of the coalition of the majority in parliament are premature.
However, the expert believes these conversations are a fair assessment of the real situation.
The expert believes the coalition will not last until the next parliamentary elections, and probably will not survive a year.
Pannier said Kyrgyzstan has a lot of problems - low wages, unemployment, electricity shortages, etc. He added this year it looks like food prices are going to rise significantly, and there are social tensions left over from last year, both from the ouster of Kurmanbek Bakiyev as president, which caused rifts among various ethnic Kyrgyz groups and aggravating the north-south division, and the interethnic conflict between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan.
He said the opposition can use any combination of these problems to claim the government is not moving quickly enough.
"Also, presidential elections are not that far away and some candidates are likely to contrast their "plan of action" with the failures of the government to deliver on needed reforms," said Pannier.
The current coalition should move forward not only with reforms, but also with solidifying the structure of the new government, he said.
This coalition will have a difficult time lasting until presidential elections later this year, but can do some good by addressing the most immediate issues - the cost of living and interethnic harmony, the analyst believes.
"Even in Western democracies, the coalition governments fall, but new coalitions take their place," said Pannier.
Kyrgyzstan has just embarked on this new system of government, it would be unrealistic to expect there will not be problems, including the fall of governments, he believes.
If the present one ceases to exist, the key is for a new coalition to be formed and maintain the system of government, said the expert.