Armenia's dangerous game on state border: New provocations against Azerbaijan

Politics Analytics 12 May 2023 14:22 (UTC +04:00)
Armenia's dangerous game on state border: New provocations against Azerbaijan
Elchin Alioghlu
Elchin Alioghlu
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 12. On the evening of May 10, units of the Armenian Armed Forces from positions in the direction of the Zod settlement of the Basarkechar district subjected the opposing positions of the Azerbaijani army to intense shelling from various types of small arms, deliberately committing a provocation.

As a result of the enemy's targeted fire, a serviceman of the Azerbaijani army's long-term active military service, Muslim Mahmudlu, was seriously wounded in the head. He was immediately taken to a military medical facility. Another Azerbaijani serviceman, Orhan Novruzalizade became a martyr.

Despite the warning to the Armenian side to stop provocations and not to escalate the situation, it has once again violated the ceasefire.

The entire responsibility for this provocation lies with the military-political leadership of Armenia.

In particular, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to escalate the situation as much as possible in order to achieve tactical goals at the current stage and strategic goals in the later future.

Azerbaijan observes the activity of the Armenian Armed Forces units, which are concentrating additional forces and military equipment in the Zod direction of the Basarkechar district. The Armenian side is trying to prepare the ground for the next provocation.

Pashinyan saying that he does not intend to cancel his visit to Belgium's Brussels, where a trilateral meeting with the participation of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is scheduled for May 14, commented on the armed clash that took place in the direction of the village of Zod of Basarkechar district.

At the same time, he considers it unlikely that a peace treaty with Azerbaijan will be signed on May 14.

According to the Armenian PM, the draft of the bilateral peace and interstate agreement is still preliminary.

"It is too early to sign the agreement. On the other hand, we have a desire to prepare and sign the document as soon as possible."

The military provocation was committed in the Armenian direction, the Armenians used all available means, including mortar artillery, kamikaze drones (loitering munitions).

However, this time Pashinyan made a very serious, fatal mistake.

In general, over the years of holding 20 percent of the territory of Azerbaijan under occupation, Armenia and its people have become accustomed to the fact that their problems are solved by "patrons". Along with official Yerevan, Armenians living even in the most remote mountain village or belonging to one of the communities of the Armenian Diaspora abroad were convinced that if hostilities began, great pressure would be exerted on Azerbaijan, military personnel of the "patron" parties would be brought into the combat zone, and in the end, Azerbaijan would surely be defeated.

But the Second Karabakh War, which began in 2020 and lasted 44 days, turned into a painful collision with reality for the Armenians. Armenians from the first days of the war had no doubt that the Russian side would join the military actions and support the country's capital Yerevan.

In the Armenian segment of social networks and especially in the Armenian media, politicians, government officials, "analysts", "experts" and representatives of the diaspora constantly referred to "information obtained from reliable sources." They said that Russia was preparing to send troops into the combat zone on behalf of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) forces and "the process will begin very soon, even tomorrow."

Later they said that dozens of cargo planes with ammunition and military equipment were sent from Russia, Iran, India and Syria. Meanwhile, the Armenian Defense Ministry published paranoid "statistics" about the "losses and victims of Azerbaijan", trying to create an idea among Armenians about the "inevitability and proximity of victory."

But the war ended with the surrender of Armenia, the defeat of its army, and a fiasco. Nevertheless, the Armenian leadership, without learning lessons from the consequences of the war, continues its aggression and radicalism, and revanchist forces feel very comfortable in Yerevan.

It is for this reason that Pashinyan is trying to barrage the West and Russia, considering one of the elements of his security a guarantee of Iran's active participation in the processes in the region.

Considering the above, it is no coincidence that after the talks in Washington between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, on the eve of the meeting in Brussels on May 14, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, with the mediation of the Chairman of the European Council Charles Michel, the situation on the conditional state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia was artificially aggravated, near the village of Zod (Seudlu) of Basarkechar district.

Armenia, which almost every day declares its alleged "desire and aspiration to establish peace and stability in the region," is once again trying to stop the process aimed at signing a final peace agreement, aggravating the situation.

Armenia does not want to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and once and for all renounce any forms of territorial claims to Azerbaijan, recognizing that Karabakh is its integral part, deliberately delaying peace negotiations, trying to make them meaningless and ineffective.

Although representatives of the US Department of State and, in particular, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made statements like that "progress has been made in negotiations to agree on the preliminary text of the final peace agreement," there is no actual progress.

Armenia is still trying to aggravate the problem and disrupt the peace process and this is a primitive strategy and the game of Pashinyan.