BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17. The use of road transport fuels, which has traditionally driven oil demand, is predicted to decline starting from 2025 and will only marginally exceed its pre-crisis peak, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency forecasts, without the impact of new electric vehicles (EVs) and efficiency improvements since 2022, projected demand for 2028 would be 7.8 mb/d higher.
This figure surpasses the total jet/kerosene or naphtha deliveries of 2022 and is 40 percent higher than India's fuel demand last year, making it the world's third-largest consumer.
Furthermore, changes in consumer behavior following the pandemic, such as hybrid working and video conferencing, are contributing to a decrease in transport fuel consumption. However, there has been a relative shift from public transport to car travel in urban areas, the agency added.
The IEA noted that the overall growth in global oil demand is expected to slow down during the forecast period of 2022-2028 due to the accelerating energy transition, signaling an approaching peak. Although there will be modest growth in total oil consumption, driven primarily by the rise in petrochemical feedstocks, the overall increase will be limited.
By 2028, oil usage is projected to reach 105.7 mb/d, which is 5.9 mb/d higher than the levels observed in 2022.