BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Russia's overall volume of oil exports experienced a month-on-month decrease of 150,000 b/d in August.
According to the data obtained by Trend from the International Energy Agency (IEA), this decline was partially mitigated by a 120,000 b/d increase in crude oil exports but was more substantially influenced by a 270,000 b/d drop in product exports.
Comparatively, Russia's total shipments in August remained 900,000 b/d below their levels prior to the conflict and exhibited a year-on-year decrease of 570,000 b/d.
Crude oil volumes saw a minor uptick, with the reduction in seaborne trade to China being compensated for by expanded exports to India. It is worth noting that China and India remain the primary purchasers of Russian crude; however, their combined share of purchases decreased to 75 percent in August, down from an average of 81 percent observed from January through May 2023, as other buyers entered the market.
As the IEA pointed out, despite Russian crude prices surpassing the price cap in August, it does not seem to have significantly influenced the choice of destinations for these exports.
According to the IEA's research, product exports continue to be strong, with notable destinations including the UAE, India, and Brazil, although they have seen a decline in shipments to Saudi Arabia and China. The decrease in product deliveries has primarily affected the Middle East, with a drop of 240,000 b/d to 210,000 b/d. It's worth noting that this figure could potentially increase since 250,000 b/d of products labeled as heading to "unknown" locations are still to be considered.
Shipments have eased to Türkiye, with a month-on-month decrease of 25,000 b/d to 470,000 b/d, and to India, down by 20,000 b/d to 120,000 b/d. However, as the agency noted, product flows have remained stable to Africa at 320 kb/d. China, India, Türkiye, and the Middle East collectively account for approximately one-third of Russian product exports. In some instances, these countries use these products to replace their domestic supply, which they subsequently export.