BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 9. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that US crude oil net imports will decrease from 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 2.1 mb/d in 2024, further dropping to 1.3 mb/d in 2025, Trend reports.
According to the agency, increasing US crude oil production coupled with declining refinery operations will lead to a reduction in net imports of crude oil (the difference between crude oil imports and exports) in late 2024 and throughout 2025.
This decline in crude oil net imports aligns with a longstanding trend of decreasing imports over the years, a pattern that is expected to persist, the EIA noted. The US has consistently imported less crude oil on an annual basis since 2005, while crude oil exports have generally risen since December 2015, following the lifting of restrictions on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, the EIA projects a steady rise in US commercial crude oil inventories relative to the five-year average starting from August 2024, with levels expected to surpass the average by October 2025. The agency anticipates US crude oil production to reach an average of 13.7 mb/d in 2025, surpassing the previous record of 12.9 mb/d set in 2023. Concurrently, refinery runs are forecasted to decline by 1 percent, averaging 15.8 mb/d in 2025, down from 16 mb/d in 2023.