BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 29. Africa is set to become a key player in the global LNG market, with the continent accounting for around 20% of the 477 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of new global LNG capacity in development, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
The report forecasts global LNG capacity to rise from 486 Mtpa in 2023 to 755 Mtpa by 2030, driven by demand in regions with limited domestic production or pipeline access. Africa’s share, approximately 93 Mtpa, includes under-construction and planned projects.
West Africa - led by Nigeria - is central to this expansion. Nigeria alone contributes nearly two-thirds of the region’s LNG output and over one-third of Africa’s total, with exports expected to reach 20 Mt by 2030. However, the country faces ongoing challenges, including reduced liquefaction rates due to infrastructure issues and vandalism, which have cut operating efficiency from 90% in 2018 to 60% in 2023.
Despite these constraints, Nigeria remains among the top LNG exporters globally and offers a strategic advantage to buyers in Europe and Asia due to its location and faster shipping times compared to U.S. exports.
Africa also leads in floating LNG infrastructure, holding about 20% of global capacity. Much of West Africa’s gas is offshore - with significant untapped reserves - making it well-suited for FLNG development. By 2035, regional liquefaction capacity is expected to rise to 50.6 Mtpa, supported by new projects in Nigeria, Gabon, and other countries.
Rystad's analysis suggests that, while Nigeria is unlikely to rank among the top five global exporters soon, its role - and that of West Africa more broadly - will be critical to the continent’s growing presence in the global LNG market.