Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan.18 / Trend N.Ismayilova /
Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2012 is expected to be 3.1 per cent says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) 2012.
The current account is expected to be 22.4 per cent of the GDP in 2012 and 21.5 per cent in 2013. The forecast is 4.4 per cent for 2013.
The Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2012 to 5.4 per cent for developing countries and 1.4 per cent for high-income countries (-0.3 per cent for the Euro Area), down from its June estimates of 6.2 and 2.7 per cent (1.8 per cent for the Euro Area), respectively. Global growth is now projected at 2.5 and 3.1 per cent for 2012 and 2013, respectively.
"Developing countries should prepare for further downside risks as Euro Area debt problems and weakening growth in several big emerging economies are dimming global growth prospects," the report says.
"Slower growth is already visible in weakening global trade and commodity prices. Global exports of goods and services expanded an estimated 6.6 per cent in 2011 (down from 12.4 per cent in 2010), and are projected to rise by only 4.7 per cent in 2012. Meanwhile, global prices of energy, metals and minerals and agricultural products are down 10, 25 and 19 per cent respectively since peaks in early 2011. Declining commodity prices have contributed to an easing of headline inflation in most developing countries," the report says.
According to the forecast of the Azerbaijani government, under the project of socio-economic development for 2012, the rate of the GDP's real growth is estimated at 5.7 per cent, non-oil GDP - 8.6 per cent and oil GDP - 1.5 per cent. The inflation rate is expected at six per cent and the GDP is estimated to be $55.1 billion at a rate of 0.79 manat to $1.