BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.16
By Tamilla Mammadova – Trend:
Georgia’s economy would contract by 4.1 percent instead of 6.1 percent without COVID lockdown, said Lasha Kavtaradze, head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting at Georgian investment company Galt & Taggart, Trend reports via Georgian media.
Kavtaradze declares that according to their basic forecast, economic growth can reach 5 percent in 2021 with partial recovery of tourism. However, if the tightening continues for a longer period of time, then the economy will grow by 3.6 percent this year.
At the same time, Galt & Taggart does not consider the possibility of another "lockdown" in its scenarios, however, according to Lasha Kavtaradze, in the case of "lockdown" the increase will be 1 percent less.
The Investment Bank names the resumption of tourism as a key precondition for further strengthening of lari exchange rate.
According to the baseline scenario, prices are expected to increase by 4.5 percent this year, while in the case of a pessimistic scenario, the inflation rate will be 5-6 percent.
Consequently, if events develop in a pessimistic scenario, then an additional 1 percent increase of the refinancing rate in the country is not ruled out.
As for the banking sector, Galt & Taggart predicts that lending will increase by 10-12 percent this year, while in the case of a pessimistic scenario, the increase of loan volume will be within 5-7 percent.
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