Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec.22 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova /
The main advantage of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project over other possible routes for transporting the Central Asian gas, is the presence of a source to fill the pipeline by Turkmenistan, Stefan Meister, German expert on energy in Central Asia, believes.
"The main difference between TAPI and "Nabucco" is that it (TAPI) is represented by Turkmenistan, not only one of its founders but also a gas supplier, which has enough resources and interest to promote this project," Meister wrote to Trend in an e-mail.
In recent years, a growing interest regarding the TAPI project has been witnessed among observers. Earlier this month, a framework agreement on the gas pipeline and an intergovernmental agreement on the gas pipeline project were signed after a summit of the participant countries in Ashgabat.
According to the feasibility study of the project, the pipeline will stretch 1,735 kilometers from the major Dovletabad field in eastern Turkmenistan, passing through Herat and Kandahar provinces in Afghanistan, Quetta District in Pakistan and reach Fazilk settlement in India on the Pakistan-Indian border.
It is expected that the pipeline, whose construction is scheduled to be completed by late 2014, will allow transporting 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually, out of which India is ready to buy only about 18 billion cubic meters. The cost of the pipeline construction is estimated at $7.6 billion.
According to Meister, another advantage is that the factors such as problems in the energy sector between Russia and the EU along with the disputes of the Caspian countries regarding borders' delimitation will not affect the course of the project.
Nabucco gas pipeline project worth 7.9 billion euro will transport gas from the Caspian region and the Middle East to the EU. Construction of the gas pipeline is to begin in 2012 with the first deliveries scheduled for 2015. Maximum capacity of the pipeline will hit 31 billion cubic meters per year.
The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline will have a length of about 300 kilometers and is going to be laid on the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea. The pipeline will connect to Azerbaijan where it will link to the South Corridor, which includes the Nabucco pipeline project. At present, the construction of this pipeline is difficult due to the unresolved issue on the Caspian Sea status.
"Turkmenistan is playing a game, usual for all gas and oil producing countries. It participates in the development of a number of projects, because it knows that not all of them will be implemented," the expert said.
Also the republic's participation in a number of projects gives an opportunity to Turkmenistan to raise gas prices for existing and future customers, as the country has different options for its sale, Meister further said.
According to him, Turkmenistan has huge gas reserves that should be developed, with BP estimating that the country's gas reserves were estimated at 8.1 trillion cubic meters (fourth in the world) as of late 2009.
"If Ashgabat will be able to find investors for it, it will have enough gas for TAPI. If not, Turkmenistan may have to reduce gas supplies to current customers," the expert said.
Ashgabat's interest in the project TAPI is, above all, political overtone, Meister believes.
According to him, Turkmenistan is trying as much as possible to diversify its gas supplies, so as not to appear too dependent on Russia and China, consumers and transit countries, and the European Union, as presently, its priority is Nabucco project.
According to Meister, existing high risk of security for the transportation of gas through Afghanistan and Pakistan and political instability in these countries have made almost all the investment in the project unobtainable.
"It is difficult to conclude contracts with countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are weak states and whose governments fail to implement or to give guarantees on contracts," he said.