Azerbaijan , Baku, April 27 /Trend, A. Badalova/
By 2035, international oil prices will be equivalent to $125 per barrel, according to annual forecast of the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA). The forecast is based upon the assumption of preservation of current conditions, particularly, OPEC share in global oil production and global economic growth, for a long-term period.
As the EIA forecasts, WTI oil price will average $94.53 per barrel in 2015, $108.05 per barrel in 2020, and $117.6 per barrel in 2025.
However, the EIA also assumes other long-term scenarios of change of global oil prices
The second scenario - high prices - assumes a higher pace of economic growth of OECD nonmember states and a growth of demand in oil in these states, as well as cut of oil production by largest oil-producing countries and fall of OPEC share in global oil production to 37 percent.
Under such conditions, oil prices are forecasted as $200 per barrel in 2035, $185.79 per barrel in 2025, $169.12 per barrel in 2020, and $146.03 per barrel in 2015.
The low price scenario assumes a low pace of economic growth in OPEC nonmember states hence resulting in low demand in liquid hydrocarbons. Under this, OPEC states will increase oil production, and the cartel's share in global oil production will reach to 48 percent in 2035 against 40 percent in 2009.
Under such scenario , the EIA forecasts fall of oil prices to $54.97 per barrel in 2015, $52.82 per barrel in 2020 , $51.27 per barrel in 2025, $50.31 per barrel in 2030, and $50 per barrel in 2035.
EIA oil price forecasts on three scenarios:
|
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
|
|
Scenario 1 |
108 .05 |
117 .6 |
123 .17 |
125 |
|
|
Scenario 2 |
146 .03 |
169 .12 |
185 .79 |
196 .05 |
200 |
|
Scenario 3 |
54 .97 |
52 .82 |
51 ,27 |
50 .31 |
50 |
Scenario 1: if current conditions remain
Scenario 2: high prices
Scenario 3: low prices